2023 Midterm Rankings
Having scouted most, if not all, of the consensus top-75 prospects and after much deliberation, here are my midterm rankings.
Sorry for the delay, but it’s finally here: my midterm top-32 rankings! This draft class has been an absolute joy to scout, there is a large amount of skill and a huge variety in playstyles. Now, let’s jump straight into it!
Tier 1: Generational Talent
1: Connor Bedard, C, Regina Pats, WHL
To nobody’s surprise, Bedard is my top prospect in the 2023 class. He is the best prospect to be available since that other Connor went first overall eight years ago. Bedard is supremely dynamic, his offensive creativity and skill are otherworldly, and his curl-and-drag release is already among the two best in the world. His defensive game needs polishing, but that’s not what you’re picking him for. Bedard is of the level of a prospect to make a bottom-feeding team into a mediocre one overnight.
Tier 2: Clear Superstar Talent
2: Adam Fantilli, C, Michigan Wolverines, NCAA
He may not have had a comparable World Junior Championship to Bedard (though he never should’ve been demoted from the top-six) but Fantilli remains the only player in my second tier of the draft class. His combination of power, skill, mobility, intelligence, and dynamism is unmatched in the class — even by Leo Carlsson. He plays a power forward’s game and does so better than any other draft-eligible has in my time as a scout. I feel comfortable stating that his floor is of a lower-end 1C and that he has the upside to be a top-10 centre in the league.
Tier 3: Potential Superstars
Disclaimer: All four players in this tier have held my #3 spot at some point in the past month and I could easily be convinced to pick any of them with the top-2 off the board. The tier here is far more reflective of my views of their abilities and upsides than their individual numerical rankings are.
3: Zach Benson, LW/C, Winnipeg Ice, WHL
Benson and Fantilli are the most well-rounded high-skill players in this draft class. Benson is a scout’s dream: he thinks the play at an elite level, he has elite skill, he’s an elite playmaker, he’s tenacious and intense, and he’s elite defensively. He is a slam-dunk top-six talent, and despite playing almost exclusively as a winger for Winnipeg, his game is made to play down the middle, where he can best weaponize his intelligence, deception, delay game, and inside game.
4: Leo Carlsson, LW/C, Örebro, SHL
If a team wanted Fantilli at the draft and missed out on him, their consolation prize in Leo Carlsson is an excellent one. He is a highly-intelligent playmaking powerforward who drives offence at an impressive rate in an excellent professional league. He’s a great skater who weaponized that ability in tandem with his strength to create plays that few others in this class can. I wrote up a video analysis thread on him in December, which you’re welcome to check out for a more in-depth analysis of his game.
5: Matvei Michkov, LW/RW, Sochi, KHL
Alright, I know some will be surprised/confused by this one, but let me re-iterate that I could quite easily be convinced to pick him at 3. Michkov easily has the second-best release in the class behind Bedard. He generates tremendous power and he changes his angles of release effortlessly to score from off angles. He is a dynamic offensive weapon with elite handling skill and off-puck movement in the offensive zone, and very good playmaking as well. He is also a very raw player who likely wouldn’t be an NHL option until 2026 anyway, even if he weren’t locked into his KHL contract. His defensive game is downright painful to watch: he’s static and continuously cheats for offence. Still, his ceiling is top-4 highest in the class with the top-2 and the next guy.
6: Andrew Cristall, LW, Kelowna Rockets, WHL
It almost hurts me to have him this low, but he could easily rise to 3 by the time June rolls around. Cristall plays a game of pure skill, offence, and intelligence. He may process the game faster than anyone else in the class. His playmaking may also be the best in the class (coinflip with Bedard). His stride isn’t the prettiest, but his agility, edgework, and evasiveness are all elite. His release isn’t elite but he has just about every goalscorer’s instinct and he will score at the NHL level. His defensive game and work rate are inconsistent at best, but with his processing and flashes of high-end tenacity, he should be able to tread water in his own zone in the NHL with targetted development.
Tier 4: Top-Line/Pairing Upside
7: Jayden Perron, RW, Chicago Steel, USHL
Perron is another undersized winger I have very high, but this time it’s not a consensus pick to have so high. I’ve seen him ranked anywhere between 10 and 50, but I’m a huge believer in his skill and ceiling. Perron has an elite hockey mind, elite work rate, elite skill, and is among the five best playmakers in the class. His defensive game is also a strength, as he applies smart and well-timed pressure, especially on the back-check.
8: Axel Sandin Pellikka, RD, Skellefteå AIK, SHL
Sandin Pellikka is comfortably my top-ranked defenceman in the class. His mobility is elite, he moves around the ice like few NHL defenders can. He thinks the game at a very high level, constantly making himself open as an option to diffuse pressure, and he knows exactly how to use his skating to create advantages. I love his shooting habits too. Not only does he have a great slapshot and wrist shot, but he consistently moves up into the high slot before using those tools, as he really values retaining possession. I like his upside as a #2D PP QB who excels in transition and offensively but still needs to shore up his in-zone defensive play a bit (I’ve liked his gap-control vs the rush quite a bit though).
9: Gavin Brindley, C, Michigan Wolverines, NCAA
The second Michigan centreman in my top 10 is among my favourite players in the draft class. Brindley has the best motor in the class and only Timur Mukhanov comes close to matching it. He’s an absolute buzzsaw out there, pushing the pace like there’s no tomorrow. He pairs this with a high-end hockey sense, elite transition ability as a puck carrier, refined off-puck movement, and flashes of truly impressive playmaking skill and angle changes. He will need to learn to not go 100% all the time to add elements of deception and delay game in order to unlock his potential as a play-driving 1B centre, but even if he doesn’t, he will likely turn into an extremely valuable middle-six piece that every contender wants and needs.
10: Will Smith, C, USNTDP
Smith is (barely) my top-ranked player from this year’s NTDP batch, and he has quite a few similarities with Logan Cooley. Both centres are extremely flashy problem-solvers at their best with the puck on their sticks and with standout handling and playmaking skill. Smith may also be a better shooter than Cooley was last year, but he lacks his counterpart’s dynamic and elite skating ability. Smith is extremely fun and has 1C upside, but his floor is also lower than other players in this tier, which is why he’s a bit lower on my board than he is for others.
11: Ryan Leonard, RW, USNTDP
While I had my reservations with the NTDP’s skilled powerforward last year (Cutter Gauthier), I’m a huge Ryan Leonard fan. He’s not as big as his predecessor, but he uses his strength very effectively. Leonard is inside-driven, has a powerful and accurate shot, flashes impressive playmaking, and has built his game around a high degree of intelligence. He’s impressively shifty and agile for a powerforward and he uses that to consistently create openings for himself and his teammates. I feel very comfortable projecting him as a future complimentary top-6 scorer with a high floor.
12: Eduard Šalé, RW, Kometa Brno, Czech Extraliga
Šalé is a fluid skater with elite upside in transition. He layers his skating and handling skill with deception and consistent scanning habits to identify effective lanes to generate entries. Off the rush, he is also very capable of finding space to use his shot, which is a genuine threat. He also demonstrates a good delay game. He layers deception into his stride and his hips and is patient with the puck on his stick vs pro competition. His scanning habits and ability to find soft ice are equally among his strengths. He has a high motor that he sometimes activates defensively, but is generally disengaged in the DZ and loses his assignments. Offensively, however, his motor is consistent and effective. He refuses to give up on plays that aren’t fully dead yet. His excellent edgework and agility make up for his lack of elite top speed, which could be improved by greater stride depth. His defensive game is a real concern, but the top-6 upside is certainly enticing.
Tier 5: Top of the Lineup Longshots
This tier of players has a bit of a mix, ranging from high-floor guys who with tool development could become complementary top-line/pairing guys and players with exceptional tools and a low floor.
13: Mikhail Gulyayev, LD, Omsk, KHL/VHL/MHL
Gulyayev has some of the most enticing tools among defencemen in the class. He’s a terrific skater with excellent passing skill and elite transition upside. His shooting habits aren’t as good as Sandin Pellikka’s, but when he gets to the high slot, his wrist shot is a threat to score. He’s electrifying with the puck and executes some really high-level plays. However, his decision-making and defensive play as a whole need quite a bit of refinement. He’s a high-ceiling project who could turn into one of the more entertaining defenders in the league with the support of a good development team.
14: Oliver Moore, C, USNTDP
Moore is the third and final NTDP player in my first round (and in my top 64 for that matter). He’s a tremendous skater and is certainly among the fastest players in the class. He blends that mobility, speed, and pace with very good handling skill and high-end playmaking. He uses his movement to create passing lanes which he knows very well how to exploit. His defensive game has a strong foundation of pressure, work rate, and positioning, but he needs to work on his scanning habits quite a bit — all over the ice, not just defensively. While he’s more than likely going to be a middle-six guy, he could be a complimentary piece on a top line if he learns to maximize the application of his speed, dynamism, and playmaking.
15: Luca Pinelli, LW/C, Ottawa 67’s, OHL
Every scout has a few players they’re particularly bullish on relative to consensus, here’s one of mine. Pinelli hasn’t played a game at centre all year, but I’m a staunch believer in his projectability down the middle. He processes the game better than the vast majority of the draft class, he consistently makes the best play whilst under pressure. Few players in the CHL are better than him at getting the puck from the boards to the middle or in terms of transition efficiency. He’s not the quickest, but high-end agility permits him to play a highly-deceptive game. He is a strong defensive player with great tenacity and he is a true dual-threat offensively with a wicked one-timer and high-end playmaking alike. I see Pinelli as a future second-line Swiss Army Knife, but with significant investment in power skating lessons and refinement of his offensive toolkit, I think there’s a chance he develops into a complimentary first-liner.
16: Dmitri Simashev, LD, Yaroslavl, KHL/MHL
Simashev’s production is very underwhelming, especially when compared to Gulyayev, but it does not reflect his offensive tools or his upside at all in my view. Simashev is 6’4” and a tremendous skater. His puck protection mechanics, hands, creativity, and passing are also clear strengths. Pair that with a solid shutdown defensive game where he uses his physical edge to protect the slot, as well as a brain that remains composed under pressure — both on and off-puck — and you have yourself a very toolsy player who projects extremely well to the modern NHL. I’m not fully convinced of top-pair upside yet and would love to see his production continue to surge as it has in the past month, but I fully understand why some have him in their 10 range, and I’m not far off from that optimism either.
17: Riley Heidt, C, Prince George Cougars, WHL
Heidt has some excellent tools. He’s an elite skater with tremendous agility, great edgework, a separation gear, and near-perfect knee-bend. He has a great release that he can get off in tight spaces and in a diverse set of manners. He’s also grown his playmaking game to an impressive level this season, changing angles with ease at times and using his shooting threat to open passing lanes and he can hit targets with great accuracy relying solely on his peripheral vision. The top-six upside is clear, but he can be very static off puck, both offensively and defensively, and he really needs to add some muscle and physical tools to project to the pro game.
18: Dalibor Dvorsky, C, AIK, Allsvenskan
This may seem low to many, but I really do appreciate Dvorsky’s game. He’s physically mature, plays with refined habits and great energy at 200 feet, and has a defining offensive skill with his shot. He’s certainly one of the premier two-way centres in the class but I’m not convinced of top-line upside and think that he best projects as a future 3C with upside as a PP triggerman. He’s not overly dynamic and he lacks a real playmaking aspect to his game, which limits his offensive threat quite a bit. However, he’s among the most polished players available, with very good stride mechanics, good hands, good defensive awareness, and a blistering shot.
19: Will Whitelaw, C/RW, Youngstown Phantoms, USHL
Whitelaw is the ultimate boom-or-bust player in the class. His tools are easily top-7 in the class and quite possibly top-5. He’s a great skater, extremely quick, has elite hands, a better shot, and excellent playmaking ability. His habits and decision-making are subpar, though, and make it more than understandable to me that some have him outside their top-64. He is largely perimeter-based as a creator, he can struggle under heavy physical pressure, and he makes some confounding individualistic low-percentage plays immediately after flashing his tremendous skill in transition. I like to swing on tools, but even so, I’d be terrified to use my first pick of the draft on Whitelaw. That being said, a team with a patient and progressive development staff could mould him into a special, special player with first-line upside.
Tier 6: Fun Middle of the Lineup Guys
20: Luca Cagnoni, LD, Portland Winterhawks, WHL
While Lukas Dragicevic and even Caden Price are receiving most of the attention among draft-eligible WHL defencemen, Cagnoni is the one I have in my top-32. Cagnoni is likely the smartest defender in the entire class and his tools don’t fully match up with his brain. He has a keen understanding of how to create advantages, whether it be keeping a suffocating gap in transition, or a high-end delay game to allow teammates to support him on the rush, Cagnoni consistently makes excellent decisions. He has elite scanning habits, is calm under pressure at all times, is a high-end passer, and has quick hands. That being said, his skating — and his backward skating specifically — is subpar, which isn’t ideal, especially for a 5’9” defenceman. The odds are stacked against him, but I believe that Cagnoni’s brain will propel him to a second-pairing role in the NHL.
21: Brayden Yager, C, Moose Jaw Warriors, WHL
Like Dvorsky, this one may surprise some of you, and I think the two have some similarities. Both are well-rounded centres with blistering shots, and I think Yager’s is even better than his Slovak counterpart’s, but he lacks the physical resistance and strength that Dvorsky has. Yager has flashed high-end defensive performances, but this has fallen off this season compared to last. He also defaults to shooting the puck in the offensive zone, consistently failing to even scan for passing options. He’s an average skater who can be quite static during sustained possessions at either end of the ice, but he does have a good motor in transition going both ways, which makes it easy to envision him developing into a more active and engaged player as a whole. His biggest hurdle is his physical game. He frequently crumbles under physical pressure and doesn’t out-leverage opponents like the undersized players in my top-10 do. That being said, I see Yager as a future middle-six centre with real upside as a PP1 triggerman if he can not only add muscle but learn to play under physical pressure.
22: Alex Čiernik, LW, Södertälje SK, Allsvenskan
Čiernik is a skilled and shifty winger who pushes the pace of play and is a real dual-threat scorer. He’s a consistent scanner offensively and defensively who makes the necessary micro-adjustments to either block or fill passing lanes. He’s a solid defensive player with room to grow when he stops cheating for offence when possession in his own end becomes contentious. His handling skill is another real strength, along with his delay game, decision-making under pressure, and problem-solving skill, which forms a cohesive offensive toolkit and projects very nicely to a second-line role in the NHL with continued refinement and tool development.
23: Charlie Stramel, C, Wisconsin Badgers, NCAA
Stramel isn’t the profile of player I typically rank higher than most public scouts: he’s a huge, physical, smooth-skating, 200-foot centreman. Which on its own isn’t inherently enticing to me, but when you add in composed puck-carrying, impressive speed, and genuinely high-end playmaking ability, an image of a cohesive and projectable middle-six NHL centre emerges. Stramel is one of the most physically-dominant p[layers in the class and he uses that to create advantages and to protect possession rather than to chase hits. He’s inside-driven and finds space impressively well during sustained OZ possessions. He lacks the dynamism, deception, and handling skill to have a first-line ceiling, but he fits right into this group of middle-of-the-lineup players.
24: Timur Mukhanov, C, Omsk, KHL/VHL/MHL
Here’s another under-producing Russian. I mentioned this in the Brindley section, but Mukhanov is an absolute burner; he has an elite motor and is one of the quickest players in the draft class. Not only is he intense and fast, but his actual skating mechanics are excellent, making him as adaptable as he is quick. He creates space with his offensive movement and consistently attacks the middle, even against pro competition. His off-puck movement is equally good, he finds pockets of space very well. He engages physically and defensively and breaks up a ton of plays on the backcheck. He’s a decent playmaker, but it’s not a standout strength and his release is fairly weak, which limits his goalscoring range. If his offensive tools were one step higher, he’d be significantly higher on my board, but as of right now, he projects as an intense, intelligent, 200-foot, middle-six centre.
25: Calum Ritchie, C, Oshawa Generals, OHL
Ritchie started out the year well inside my top-10 and has gradually but steadily dropped the more I’ve watched him play. In my first viewing — which was from last season — I saw a highly-tenacious elite playmaker with elite processing. His game, however, has been reeled in quite a bit since then, falling more into a Shane Wright style: calculated, composed, and effective. But Ritchie isn’t Wright. While he flashes impressive handling skill and playmaking, these aren’t overly consistent. He’s very well-rounded and an elite pick-pocket on the backcheck, but I’ve come to doubt any first-line upside. However, in the late first, if a team wants a smart 200-foot centre that will undoubtedly play in the NHL, Ritchie is a good option.
26: Nate Danielson, C, Brandon Wheat Kings, WHL
Danielson is a very fast 200-foot centre with some really enticing tools. He’s active in all three zones and closes his gaps quickly defensively, especially on the backcheck. He’s a great puck carrier in transition who could become dominant in this regard if he improves his lateral mobility and integrates more lane switches into his currently fairly North-South game. He consistently sends pucks to the slot, sometimes to a fault, and he has a pretty good release that he needs to use more regularly to truly become a dual-threat scorer. Even if his offensive game doesn’t fully translate to unlock his second-line upside, he has a solid fall-back game as an intense two-way centre with upside in transition.
27: Martin Mišiak, C, HC Nove Zamky, Tipos Extraliga (transferring to Youngstown in the USHL)
Mišiak is another intense, intelligent, and incredibly quick centreman. He plays a physically-engaged game and keeps a low centre of gravity to withstand physical pressure. He’s a really good carrier in transition and creates space for his teammates with his speed and pace. He’s a great scanner who is consistently well-positioned offensively and defensively and he applies heavy pressure on both the forecheck and backcheck. Mišiak’s game is highly-projectable for a third-line role, but tool development — specifically improvement to his handling skill and shooting mechanics — could unlock a second-line ceiling. As a whole, he’s a well-rounded player who will gain his coaches’ trust very quickly and can be used in all situations.
28: Quentin Musty, C, Sudbury Wolves, OHL
Musty is the one player in this tier with tangible first-line upside, I just couldn’t quite justify placing him in the tier above. His combination of power and handling skill is unmatched in the class barring Fantilli and Carlsson. He also flashes elite playmaking skill and he has a heavy release. All of this is very inconsistent, however, and his processing is a step behind Whitelaw’s, which is why they’re currently in separate tiers. He is regularly a static spectator, but when he decides to take the game into his own hands, he flashes quite incredible ability. If his play gains consistency — in the good sense — to finish the season, he could rise by a fair bit.
29: David Reinbacher, RD, EHC Kloten, NL
Reinbacher went from relatively unknown to a consensus first-rounder in the space of a month and a half. His World Juniors were great, he was a rare spark for Austria, but I don’t see the upside to justify ranking him in the top-15 or even top-10, where others have him. His production’s been very good, granted, but it’s mainly come from solid puck movement and good shooting habits rather than from game-breaking offensive skill. Reinbacher is a smart physical defender and a very good skater, but his transition game is a question mark to me. He flashes impressive puck rushes and pinpoint passing, but his handling mechanics are really awkward — locked top hand with that arm raised to the height of his head at times — and his passing skill really wanes under physical pressure. In Reinbacher, I see a player who could be moulded into a dependable and versatile second-pairing guy, which I can’t justify ranking in my top 19.
30: Samuel Honzek, C, Vancouver Giants, WHL
When Honzek fills out his frame, he will be a hulking centreman with a really fun toolkit. His current production in the WHL is more indicative of his professional style of play than it is of his upside. He already logged 68 professional appearances in Slovakia as a 16/17-year-old, which has helped him form excellent puck-protection mechanics and professional habits like riding defenders’ blindspots to access the slot. He’s a very good handler with a decent shot and better shot selection. He’s smart, skilled, and effective, if not overly dynamic, though he plays at a decently high pace. His movement is consistently good in all three zones, he’s a solid passer in transition, and he uses his physicality to create subtle advantages rather than to chase hits. As a whole, I see yet another well-rounded middle-six centre in Honzek, this really is the profile where the draft class is deepest.
Tier 7: Skilled Second-Line Longshots
31: Otto Stenberg, C/LW, Frölunda, SHL/J20/J18
Stenberg has a lovely set of tools. He’s an effortless skater with very good handling skill and bright flashes of creativity and deception as well as great vision. However, he has a tendency to turn invisible and static for extended sequences, during which his team may as well be a man down. Furthermore, he’s relatively individualistic, especially at the junior level and skates into problems that even he can’t solve, he’s also quite a perimeter-based creator. If he can show more consistency and effective application of his tools to create advantages, he could rise up my board quite a bit.
32: Denver Barkey, C, London Knights, OHL
Barkey is just fun. He plays with real intensity, constantly scans the ice and makes a mental map of it, and he applies great defensive pressure, whether that be on the forecheck, backcheck, or in sustained DZ possesions. He gets his stick into passing lanes consistently and has upside as a penalty-killer. His stride is wide and a bit choppy, which limits his speed, but his edgework is strong and he plays at a high pace. In transition, he uses his teammates effectively and he has an impressive delay game upon entering the zone. Offensively, he keeps his head up, consistently surveys passing options and can change angles of release to flash impressive playmaking ability. His patience with the puck and excellent shooting habits (primarily high and medium-danger shots) contribute to the projectability of his offensive game. In order to make the NHL, he will need to add muscle and really refine his stride mechanics, but the foundation of a middle-six buzzsaw with skill and playmaking upside is there.
Honourable Mentions:
Koehn Ziemmer
Trey Augustine
Kasper Halttunen
Oscar Fisker Mølgaard
Matthew Soto
Caden Price
Hunter Brzustewicz
Colby Barlow