2023 NHL Draft Final Rankings - Top 100
The 2023 NHL Draft Class has been a special one to scout, here I breakdown my Top 100 rankings
Photo Credit: Andre Ringuette/HHOF-IIHF Images
This has been quite the draft class. It is definitely the strongest from the past couple of years, and it is as impressive in its high-end talent as it is in its depth. It’s also been an eventful class for myself, as it saw me take on the role of Head Scout at Dobber Prospect in the middle of the draft cycle, which I think ended up going pretty well. I’m already excited about the plans we have to further build out our awesome scouting team, but I’m getting ahead of myself, let us focus on the 2023 NHL Draft Class.
This class has approximately 50 first-round talents, which makes ranking them all the more difficult, as 18 or so of them invariably get bumped to the second round through no fault of their own. My 15 to 38(!) tier was all about splitting hairs and narrowing down exactly what I value with mid/late first-round selections. Colby Barlow, for instance, could easily be argued for that #15 slot, but my personal home-run-seeking philosophy dropped him all the way to 28, which could age rather poorly. I am making a few specific risky swings in this range such as Stenberg at 17, Nadeau at 19, Sawchyn at 25, and Wahlberg at 32 that hopefully portray this philosophy as well.
The top 14 have set themselves apart from the pack in my view. They all have paths to playing top-line/pairing minutes and bring their team value in a multitude of ways. They’re not all slam dunks, however. Cristall and Perron are the riskiest players in these top tiers, but their electrifying upsides cement them in this high-end range in my eyes. Smith and Moore have been a coinflip for me all year and ended up siding with the elite dynamism and flashy skill of Smith. I’d similarly been juggling with Benson and Carlsson for quite a few months, eventually landing on the big skilled centre. While I do have Fantilli and Michkov in the same tier, Fantilli hasn’t budged from #2 all year, but Michkov’s tantalizing upside really tempted me to make a last-minute hot take. And Connor Bedard is Connor Bedard, need I say more?
Without further ado, here are my Top 100 (+Honourable Mentions) 2023 NHL Entry Draft rankings:
Tier 10: Honourable Mentions
HM. Jakub Štancl, LW
HM. Jordan Tourigny, RD
HM. Jayson Shaugabey, C/RW
HM. Adam Gajan, G
HM. Gennadi Chaly, RD
HM. Ilya Kvochko, C/LW
HM. Tomasso De Luca, C/LW
HM. Noah Dower Nilsson, C
HM. Beckett Hendrickson, LW
Tier 9: Watchlist
100. Spencer Sova, LD
Sova is a player I thought should’ve been picked last year and an impressively strong rookie camp with the Buffalo Sabres confirmed that for me. He started off really hot in the season’s first half, really flashing his skill and mobility in transition. As the year went on, I saw fewer such confident incursions, but his skating, passing, and quick processing are all things I would bet on to help him cement a depth puck-moving role on an NHL team.
99. Coulson Pitre, C
I could regret ranking him so low, as Pitre’s mobility and flashes of skill and snarl form a solid foundation to build on, but I haven’t yet been convinced of the role he could be moulded into to make for a cohesive NHL piece with his lack of pace and his low stride and activity rates. He would need to revamp his approach to the game to become an impactful depth piece, in my view, but the mobility and moments of brilliance are certainly enticing.
98. Tanner Ludtke, C/LW
Ludtke plays a game of fluidity, playmaking, and anticipation. At his best, Ludtke flashes impressive skill, strong handling and passing abilities, and above-average processing and is a cohesive albeit junior-style offensive driver. He is really raw, though. He’s mainly perimeter based as a creator, his on-puck play lacks a fair bit of pace, and his stride mechanics are a bit clunky, especially when contrasted with his strong edgework and agility. He needs a patient development staff, but the foundation of skill is there, despite the many hurdles.
97. Kalan Lind, LW
Lind is a violent winger with a heavy shot and who has flashed playmaking ability in space off the rush. His handling, scanning habits, shooting habits, and defensive game all represent areas in need of improvement necessary to unlock NHL potential, but if they’re addressed, Lind could become a valuable depth scorer who plays with grit and sandpaper.
96. Nico Myatovic, LW
Myatovic could be ranked a lot higher, but I just haven’t seen the player many smart public scouts have seen with him just yet, it could be a sampling issue, but I feel fairly secure in my rather lukewarm stance on this player. He’s a violent powerforward with a really heavy shot and a high motor, which is a profile I like. His scanning habits, lack of explosiveness, and subpar agility and handling represent some of my biggest concerns with his projection and upside. If they’re improved, Myatovic could become a bottom-six goalscoring powerforward who facilitates play for his linemates and endears himself to the fanbase, I just have my doubts on the likelihood of that happening.
95. Mathieu Cataford, RW
Cataford is an energetic volume shooter who is at his best when buzzing around the slot. He plays a good physical game and has a high motor, which will aid his projection as a depth energy winger who can play in a variety of roles if needed. He’s not overly dynamic and isn’t a very diverse playmaker, but he won’t need to be to succeed as a depth energy scorer, likely on a fourth line. His defensive game further facilitates this, as he tracks pucks well, closes his gaps quickly, and applies active pressure, especially on the penalty kill.
94. Luke Coughlin, LD
Coughlin is a raw but mobile offensive defenceman. He needs to work on his stride mechanics, but his agility and escapability are clear strengths. In order to support an NHL projection, Coughlin will need to lean into his offence by improving his handling, deceptive tools, dynamism, and playmaking. If all that occurs, then I think he could unlock the ceiling of an offensive #5 defenceman.
93. Danny Nelson, C
This is a low ranking for Nelson, and while I respect his style of play, I don’t see a real pathway to an impactful NHL role. He’s an effective physical player who connects his wingers decently well and can be a solid net-front presence, but he lacks the raw tools and the high-end processing to make for a top-nine NHL projection in my view. His profile could facilitate a pathway to a steady 4th line role, though, and his habits and engagement are good enough for depth defensive assignments.
92. Jesse Kiiskinen, RW
Kiiskinen is an agile and fluid winger who scans really frequently but doesn’t spot the elite plays. He’s defensively responsible and values maintaining possession, often with quick and effective passes under pressure. He uses his lateral agility to access space with the puck and to quickly shift gears to access and maintain soft ice off-puck. His lack of explosiveness, high-end motor, and high-end processing limit his upside, but he could be a solid depth contributor with good development.
91. Hoyt Stanley, RD
Stanley is a fluid skater and handler, who remains very raw but has the tools to become a #4 defenceman. He has a tendency to rush his passes when pressured and has yet to fully integrate patience and composure into his game. He flashes deception, creativity, and potential as a real offensive creator from the backend, but these weren’t overly consistent in my viewings, which was a bit concerning for a player in the BCHL. He will have a lot of time to develop, however, and a team with a lot of trust in its development staff could mould him into a really fun mobile second-pairing defenceman.
90. Carson Bjarnason, G
I’ve had a tricky time with Bjarnason this season. The tools are good and he thinks the game well, but consistency and control have been two big question marks I’ve had about his game that never really got addressed this year. That said, goalies don’t develop in linear fashions (like at all) so this could change pretty quickly, but as of the time of writing, I see a good junior-level goaltender who may struggle to adjust to pro hockey. I’m still learning the ins and outs of really scouting goaltenders, however, but my qualms have been echoed by our Dobber Prospects goaltending scout, Colin Hunter, which helps me feel comfortable with this ranking.
89. Emil Kuusla, LW
Kuusla is a player who immediately stuck out to me for his relentless motor and well-rounded toolkit. He’s a decent skater who flashes occasional skill in his playmaking and can be relied on to apply consistent and effective defensive pressure. His upside isn’t top-six calibre, and while he needs to further develop his habits and tools, he could become a reliable bottom-six energy forward.
88. Brady Stonehouse, RW
Stonehouse is a player I ranked in his draft year last season, and he’s gotten quite a bit better since then. As an August birthday, he’s barely a D+1, and the progression he made in his handling, skating, shot, and power skills over last summer was really encouraging, and it showed on the scoresheet with his 37 OHL tallies. That said, he’s quite undersized and projects more as a depth energy winger who gets under his opponents’ skins like few others can and is beloved by the fan, rather than a powerforward or a top-six scorer. Few players in the CHL make me smile more regularly while watching them play than Stonehouse, he’s awesome.
87. Jeremy Wilmer, LW
Wilmer was an overage I already had ranked last year and we’re back for round two. He played a very good season for Boston University, fitting their new identity of skill and creativity to a tee. Wilmer is a really, really good passer and playmaker, he constantly tries to create advantages and to put the puck in high-danger areas, but the supporting tools necessary to project as an impactful NHLer are a bit more worrisome. He’s a good but not elite skater, which especially hurts considering his 5’8”, 154 lbs frame (as an almost 20-year-old) is a real disadvantage; that he lacks any semblance of a physical game does not help much either. Wilmer is a long shot, but in the late rounds of the draft, few players available offer more skill, creativity, and playmaking ability than he does.
86. Lenni Hämeenaho, RW
Hämeenaho’s production and tape never quite aligned for me. He’s a volume shooter with a good but not exceptional shot, but I’m not certain he has the complimentary toolkit to enable an impactful goalscoring game in the NHL. His stride is rigid and he lacks agility, while his dynamism, handling, and playmaking are all below-average NHL projections. He has a few decent physical tools, but I expect him to be a career powerforward goalscorer in Europe rather than North America.
85. Zeb Forsfjäll, LW
Forsfjäll is a skilled winger who has flashed impressive pace and handling in transition this year quite regularly against junior competition this year. Against the pros, he had a harder time finding a comfortable role as he couldn’t quite make the skill work and was given defensive assignments. While he remains raw and will need stylistic, tool, and physical development to hit the NHL, his diverse routes through the neutral zone and decent offensive tools give him some value as a mid-round swing on offence and transition ability.
84. Quinton Burns, LD
Burns is a mobile and intelligent defenceman who quickly closes his gaps and relies heavily on stickwork defensively. His transition upside is mainly as a passer and his offensive ceiling is limited, though his deceptive short passing game gives him an outside shot at becoming a decent PP2 quarterback. He played far too many minutes on a weak Kingston Frontenacs team this year and would benefit from an environment in which he is not the go-to defensive piece. He projects best as a versatile bottom-pairing contributor who spends significant time in the penalty box.
83. Theo Lindstein, LD
This is a low ranking by Lindstein’s standards, but I haven’t seen the flashes of high-end ability (at either end of the ice) necessary to solidify a top-64 ranking. His positional fluidity in the offensive zone is fun, but this mainly just means that he can play decently well in modern systems like Brynäs’. He’s a fairly simplistic player as a whole, he’s a decent skater but lacks great acceleration and agility, while his puck skills and passing ability don’t quite project as NHL average. I fear he may be a player who lacks the standout quality or elite tool that most need in order to cement an NHL roster spot.
82. Tyler Duke, LD
Duke should have been drafted last year, and his progression in a second-pairing role at Ohio State and the tool refinement his transfer to the University of Michigan will entail really should get him picked this time around. He is a smart defenseman who keeps a tight gap against the rush and snuffs out most attempts to attack the slot on his side of the ice. While his skating remains a limiting factor, he retains some offensive upside as a distributor and a shooter if he’s given the freedom and encouraged to activate more regularly in the offensive zone. He plays a practical physical game that shouldn’t be exploited even by pro-competition if it stays on its current trajectory. While top-four upside is unlikely, Duke could be a reliable #5 with possible upside on both second special teams units.
81. Carter Sotheran, RD
Sotheran is a fairly simple CHL defenceman who, in flashes, has really impressed me. When Sotheran keeps his feet moving, he does some very intriguing things; he’s a good skater with above-average handling and a growing sense of creativity with the puck offensively, though this remains a raw aspect of his game. Defensively, Sotheran is decent enough, he makes good reads on most plays and has the tools and awareness to box out forwards quite effectively, but he doesn’t project as a truly high-end defensive player, which may make the raw offensive side of his game his best bet of making the NHL long term.
Tier 8: Raw Upside or High Floor
80. Alexander Assadourian, C/LW
Assadourian is an absolute buzzsaw who was gifted big minutes in Niagara following a trade from Sudbury during the season, which changed his role from bottom-six energy winger to top offensive producer virtually overnight. And he did well! While the skill doesn’t project as an above-average NHL tool, he projects as an intelligent bottom-six piece who pushes the pace and applies incessant pressure while flashing the occasional nifty playmaking skill off the rush.
79. Ondrej Molnár, LW
Molnár had an interesting season, including a relocation to Hamilton. He plays with intensity and pace, and his playmaking ability could still progress toward becoming a defining tool, though it didn’t progress very much in the past year. He has good subtle physical tools to roll off his opponents and to out-leverage them in tight, but wouldn’t be categorized as a powerforward. He’s rarely the primary puck carrier and is at his most valuable as a compliment to more skilled linemates. He could become a good third-line piece, but second-line line upside isn’t entirely out of the question.
78. Maxim Štrbák, RD
Štrbák is a quick and agile defenceman who is a strong passer and willing activator in transition and has solid defensive and positional habits. He’s quite willing to jump into the rush and support his teammates as an outlet option. He’s a very consistent scanner too, which helps him consistently adjust his position and catch lurking threats defensively. While he lacks the tools and dynamism to project as a clear top-four piece, he could become a breakout specialist on a bottom pairing who brings value in a fair few areas of the game.
77. Kocha Delic, C
Delic is a projectable, intelligent, and intense centreman who makes for a straightforward NHL projection in a bottom-six role with his foundation of high-end work rate, strong off-puck routes, strong distribution, and overall offensive and transition efficiency. His offensive positioning is very good and he regularly locates and maintains a position in soft ice around the slot. While his tools limit his ceiling, they would support a more depth role, in which he could be extremely reliable.
76. Francesco Dell’Elce, LD
Dell’Elce is a rare Canadian High School player to build up an intriguing draft-year profile. He’s a fluid skater (his stride mechanics need significant work though) and his tools are quite good as a whole. He’s one of the best goalscorers among defencemen in this class, as he has a very hard shot and pairs it with the habit to find space in the high slot before shooting. He spots offensive opportunities well and is patient in possession, especially with his good base of handling skill serving as a decent escape tool. He remains really raw, but he’s earned a late-round swing on the basis of the quality of his tools.
75. Cole Knuble, RW
Knuble really should have gotten picked last year, and his progression since then has been excellent. He has a great motor and never stops pushing the pace. He’s middle-driven and has gotten very good at making quick plays under pressure and making great use of the give-and-go. He drives strong possession and transition metrics despite his subpar skating and dynamism by making the right plays under pressure consistently. His upside may not be the highest, but I see him topping out as a fan-favourite third-line winger.
74. Jakub Dvořák, LD
Dvořák is a big defenceman who consistently makes the small simple plays quite well. He’s a good scanner and an above-average skater, but a locked top hand limits his handling ability and he takes a back seat in transition and the offensive zone, typically filling a defensive role in the Czech pro league this season. His defensive game remains more passive than it should be, but there have been promising flashes in small samples of him using his reach and size to aggressively and effectively close his gaps at the defensive blueline. He’s also good on retrievals in the defensive zone, and could be moulded into a strong breakout passer to build on this foundation. I suspect a bottom-pairing role is the most likely NHL outcome for Dvořák, but his raw tools could elevate that ceiling to a #4 role.
73. Albert Wikman, LD
Wikman is a mobile LD with significant upside in transition, equally as a passer and carrier, who has flashed impressive offensive deception and playmaking. His defensive game is predicated on strong scanning habits and his plus-level mobility, he commands his teammates to cover the biggest threats and is an effective defender, but he will need to add lower body strength and be more aggressive in closing his gaps, both on the cycle and against the rush. If he can address these areas and find more offensive consistency, he could project as a transition-heavy #4 defender, though a third-pairing role in a modern and fluid system is a more comfortable bet.
72. Ryan Fine, RW/C
Fine is an undersized but skilled forward with good agility and edgework, which form the foundation of one of his strengths: small-area escapability. His feet, hands, and brain all work at an above-average pace and combined for some truly impressive individual efforts this season. He’s an accurate passer, and when he targets teammates in and around the slot, he completes a high rate of those attempts. He will need to become more consistently daring with his playmaking, and will need to further refine his myriad of plus-level tools to form a more cohesive overall profile. Despite the risk of Fine stagnating as a high-end AHL scorer, if he does successfully make the jump to the NHL, he could be a complimentary skilled middle-six piece, likely on the wing.
71. Oliver Bonk, RD
This is lower than most other public (and private) scouts have Bonk ranked, he may even end up as a first-round selection. While I have quite liked his defensive game, which is built on tight gap control, consistently good positioning, and a focus on protecting the slot, his offensive game and mobility have left me with enough questions about his overall upside to feel comfortable ranking him here. He’s a volume shooter in the offensive zone who, every once in a while, flashes interesting skill when activating, but this has been frustratingly infrequent in my viewings. His handling is generally rather rigid, his lateral mobility is subpar, and he lacks pace, which really caps his offensive value in my eyes. While I think it is very possible that Bonk becomes a bottom-pairing defensive presence, I have a hard time seeing a path to a legitimate top-four NHL role long-term.
70. Noel Nordh, LW
Nordh is an interesting prospect who I’ve had a bit of trouble pinning down. On the one hand, he’s a fluid skater who takes consistently strong routes to loose pucks and makes very good use of his size and reach to steal and protect possession and adds to this a strong off-puck scanning game, decent playmaking, and good handling. On the other, he’s been inconsistent between many of my viewings and his lack of shooting threat limits his offensive potency. His defensive game is a real strength, though, and I could see a development team looking to mould him into the role of a defensively-responsible skilled winger, likely in a bottom-six.
69. Lukas Dragicevic, RD
Dragicevic is an extremely divisive prospect. His production was excellent in the WHL (over a point per game) but I don’t believe it tells the whole story. Dragicevic was given every opportunity with Tri-City as he was their only real offensive creator; his per-60 production, especially at even strength, was far more similar to many other CHL draft-eligible defenders than the raw production would suggest. He also spooks me from a scouting perspective for a variety of reasons. First, his defensive game is painful to watch, I have not scouted a defenceman less involved in defending the rush than him in the past two drafts; he remains passive and gifts the entry consistently. His in-zone defensive game is better, but not exactly good either. Second, his backward skating is a real weakness, which is understandable as he only converted to defence a few years ago, but it further complicates the development of his transition defending. Lastly, I’m not convinced he has the offensive toolkit to be a potent offensive threat in the NHL. He has excellent vision and he’s quite deceptive, but that’s where it ends for me. His passing mechanics and accuracy don’t enable him to consistently hit the high-end passes he spots, and his lack of high-end pace and dynamism largely limit the projection of his deception to a transition tool to consistently beat forecheckers 1v1. I’ve really tried to fall in love with his game, even through the lens of converting him back to forward, but it never quite happened, as more and more questions arose the more viewings of his I logged.
68. Matthew Soto, RW
Soto is a player who won my heart as a D-1, where he consistently stood out positively in my viewings of Shane Wright. While Kingston was not a good team this year, Soto continued to demonstrate a fun combination of a high motor, above-average handling, and better playmaking. His shallow stride mechanics, lean frame, and defensive pressure application all need some work, but his skill paired with a good basis of processing speed and off-puck instincts make him an intriguing swing in the middle rounds, whose production could explode next season.
67. Carson Rehkopf, LW
Rehkopf is a big winger with very good hands and a heavy release. At his best, he uses his strength and reach to play keep-away and to get to high-danger areas with the puck, from which he is a real scoring threat. The inconsistencies, however, have dropped him down my board. While his playmaking and defensive games took a leap over last summer, they haven’t progressed much since the Fall and remain subpar projections. He also has a tendency not to prescan on receptions and to keep his head down in possession, which regularly leads to turnovers. He’s raw, but the goalscoring and size will likely land him a top 64 selection, but I wouldn’t bet on second-line likelihood just yet.
66. Michael Hrabal, G
Hrabal will likely be the first goaltender selected next week, quite possibly inside the top 32, but I have some doubts of his value as an NHL prospect as currently constructed. He’s really raw, even for a draft-eligible goaltender. He regularly overcommits on cross-crease transitions and his hands (both blocker and glove side) are real areas of weakness that good shooters routinely exploited this year. While he is massive and athletic, he lacks the foundation of poise, control, and consistency that makes Trey Augustine a very good goaltending prospect in my eyes. Hrabal does have a higher raw ceiling than Augustine, but his road to getting there is very long and I’m not convinced he’s likely to get there. Nonetheless, he’s a toolsy goaltender who will get a lot of developmental attention by the team that picks him and four years at UMass-Amherst could go a long way in maturing his game.
65. Gavyn Thoreson, LW
Thoreson is a player who I think will impress a lot of people as a D+1. He played most of this season in Minnesota’s high school circuit but went a point a game in his 23 USHL games in the regular season. He’s small, and while he’s listed at 183 lbs, he lacks lower body strength and will need to bulk up and lower his centre of gravity more consistently to become the slot-oriented buzzsaw he’s capable of being in the USHL. He’s very agile and shifty, constantly staying in motion to shake off defenders and to fall behind coverage; he was one of the best players in the USHL this season at finding and maintaining a position in soft ice around the slot. His anticipation, processing speed, escapability, playmaking, and defensive awareness/involvement are some of his biggest strengths, which is a profile I’m willing to bet on in the middle rounds of the draft. He’s far from a sure thing and he’ll need at least 3 more years before turning pro, but the payoff could be a highly intelligent and defensively responsible skilled middle-six contributor.
Tier 7: Riskier Swings on Second-Line/Pairing Upside
This was an especially tough tier for me to rank, as many of these players represent near-interchangeable swings on raw upside. Team need would play a pretty big role in sorting through this tier.
64. Andrew Strathmann, LD
Strathmann is a fairly mobile and dynamic offensive defenceman, who plays as though he had Cale Makar’s toolkit and processing speed. The main issue is that his tools aren’t nearly at Makar’s elite level and that his defensive game is rather porous. He always wants to create something with the puck on his stick, he blends his mobility and above-average hands to weave through USHL defences, but he can be individualistic in possession and can skate right into the paths of teammates, blocking their support of his rushes. He’s quite flashy but even at the USHL level he can struggle to pierce defensive structures all on his own. His offensive game represents the crux of his value as a prospect and he should be developed with that in mind, with a particular focus on using his teammates to create better offensive opportunities and to be more conscious of when to activate offensively and when not to. If he adapts to a more pro-style offensive game, he could top out as a #4 who quarterbacks a second PP unit.
63. Arttu Kärki, LD
Kärki is an offensive defenceman with very strong skating mechanics, mobility, and passing ability. Once he adds lower body weight, his skating will take another step forward with improved explosiveness, which is its current biggest weakness. Offensively, he plays with a lot of positional fluidity, switching spots with forwards regularly, and really flashing his mobility, deception, and playmaking abilities above the hashmarks. That said, his defensive game remains a real work in progress and he was one of the more inconsistent players between viewings for me in this class. In order to project as an impact NHLer, Kärki will need to add a significant amount of lower body strength, integrate physical engagement into his defensive game, be far less passive when defending transition, and continue to make creative plays with the puck. He could become a really fun mobile playmaking #4 defenceman who excels on retrievals and at sparking the breakout, but who is a natural offensive activator and adds a real offensive threat too.
62. Felix Nilsson, C/LW
Nilsson’s game is one of refined habits, quick processing, quick passing, simple but effective handling, and good utilization of simple problem-solving tools such as pace shifts and hook passes. His explosiveness needs work and his lack of dynamism and elite offensive tools limits his ceiling, but he is a high-likelihood bottom-six piece. Many public scouts whose work I have a ton of respect for are really bullish on Nilsson, which had me going back to scout him a handful of times in this past month to be certain of my read on him, which is relatively lukewarm. I haven’t seen the projectable play-driving creator that others have, but a team picking in the third round could get a really impactful bottom-six piece that supports very effectively defensively, processes the game at a good level, and connects a high-pace line.
61. Joseph Willis, C
Willis is a smart, high-motor, smooth-skating forward who drives impressive transition results, excelling as a carrier between the dotted lines. His physicality has some catching up to do but he has a lot of strong foundational physical habits that will thrive with added lower body strength. He is consistently engaged and is among the CHL’s better 2023-eligible fore and back-checkers, applying calculated and suffocating pressure. He has middle-six upside as a skilled play-driver with real defensive upside who can score from in tight and flashes good playmaking around the slot, weaponizing his and his teammates’ movement. Improving on his shot and thus diversifying his offensive toolkit would help unlock solid middle-six upside.
60. Alexander Rykov, RW
Rykov is a smart and consistent two-way playmaking winger. With the puck on his stick, he always scans for threats and options, regularly passing into space for teammates to attack. He excels off-puck and drives the middle lane consistently against pro competition in the VHL. Pairing these refined habits and a strong defensive game with a solid toolkit to boot, Rykov makes for an interesting option in the middle rounds of the draft. He lacks the high upside that other Russians in this class possess, but he has a strong enough foundation to project as a consistently strong impact bottom-six piece.
59. Jacob Fowler, G
Fowler is my second-highest-ranked goaltender in this draft class. While he is stylistically unconventional and not the biggest of goalies at 6’2”, Fowler demonstrated all throughout this season that he’s a capable netminder who can lead his team to a championship while putting up excellent numbers for a USHL goaltender, let alone a draft-eligible one. Boston College is also a strong development program for goaltenders, which will hopefully help him mature his raw game and help him project as a solid starting NHL goaltender. I think that upside is there, but as with most 18-year-old goaltenders, this is entirely a projection pick, but I’d start considering him in the 3rd round.
58. Martin Mišiak, C/LW
From one Youngstown Phantom to another, Mišiak is a versatile high-motor forward. He can play all three forward positions quite effectively and he’s as good of an offensive facilitator as he is a defensive piece. His off-puck game is excellent, he doggedly applies pressure, scans consistently, keeps his gaps tight, backchecks and forechecks hard, and he instinctively takes up the position of his defenders who activate. He’s also one of the faster players in the class and has flashed some nice playmaking ability, especially in passes into space while under pressure. I see him as a future 3rd liner, likely as a supporting piece rather than a driver, but I have a sense he could become a real analytical darling.
57. Tyler Peddle, LW/C
Peddle grew on me a lot this year. I was fairly unimpressed with the D-1 viewings I had of him while scouting Mav Lamoureux and Justin Côté, but his game matured a lot and became significantly more projectable as a result. His defensive engagement, anticipation, and habits have improved a huge amount, going from a significant weakness to an actual strength in the span of 12 months. His physical tools have also grown a lot, but he maintains a high centre of gravity, which makes it difficult for him to win the amount of physical battles he should be able to. His subpar skating remains an issue, but his off-puck offensive movement, ability to set himself up in soft ice near the slot, and his wicked shot (likely top 20 in the class) make him a potent and relatively projectable goalscorer, which his production didn’t quite echo this year. My bet, however, is that the production booms next season and whoever picks him in the middle rounds will have a quickly appreciating asset with middle-six upside as a two-way goalscorer, likely on the wing, who relies on his linemates to drive the play and to get him the puck in the offensive zone.
56. Easton Cowan, C/LW
Cowan makes for a fairly straightforward NHL projection if he can refine his stride mechanics and on-puck scanning habits, and adds a minimal amount of variety into his rush patterns as a carrier. He is highly tenacious and attacks the middle incessantly, and is at his most valuable offensively as a distributor and play-connector, flashing impressive playmaking at times. He will likely add weight and play an inside-driven and violent game once he hits the pros, and he put up an impressive amount of primary assists/60 with the right linemates as finishers, but they would need to bring the dynamism to the line as well. There’s even a chance that he could make for a strong complimentary piece in a top-6 with elite linemates, not unlike the Bunting role in Toronto, but the smart money would be on a valuable high-energy role in a bottom-six.
55. Aydar Suniev, LW
Suniev has a unique but intriguing profile. He is likely the worst skater ranked on my final board, sporting an awkwardly wide stride which is also very choppy and shallow. That said, he is also tenacious, driven, physical, and very aware, which is facilitated by refined scanning habits. He consistently stood out positively whenever I watched Penticton to scout his teammate Bradly Nadeau, and closer viewings really revealed the high-end intricacies in his game. His power game, intensity, goalscoring prowess, and intelligence form a strong foundation for a future complimentary middle-six NHLer with goalscoring upside but he will need to be glued to a really good skating coach for the next few years so as to not lag behind the play too much against pro competition.
54. Hunter Brzustewicz, RD
Brzustewicz has steadily trickled down my board this year. That is no indictment of his quality as a player, but rather on the limited progression I saw in his game over the past 6-ish months, while others kept improving and lept over him in my rankings. I am a big fan of his passing game, however. He is among the better defencemen in the class at launching the breakout, whether it be a pinpoint stretch pass or a quick pass to a teammate in space when he’s pressured, and he’s a capable offensive distributor as well. The true playmaking ability remains a bit more of a question mark for me as he’s not the most frequent manipulator or offensive activator, but the passing tools and vision could enable significant growth on that front. His defensive game is more hit or miss than the offence. His transition defending is a real strength, but the in-zone defensive play can be quite passive and he semi-regularly misses medium-danger secondary threats while hyper-focusing on the primary threat. That said, I do believe that his passing game could make him a puck-moving #4, and his floor is higher than a lot of players in this range.
53. Charlie Stramel, C
Stramel is a really tough one for me. On the one hand, most of the viewings I had of him this year were unspectacular and left me with more questions than answers. On the other, he played far too big of a role for a Wisconsin program that has not exactly garnered much acclaim in the past few years and still regularly outshone his teammates. He’s a highly physical centre with good skating mechanics and a really intriguing playmaking touch. The playmaking is of a high enough level to potentially make me look rather unintelligent in a few years’ time for this ranking, especially since he’s able to blend it with his physicality, long reach, puck protection, mobility, and speed. That said, I’m not convinced by his anticipation, processing speed, and scanning habits, which are integral to his projection as an impactful offensive piece. The defensive game is also not likely strong enough to form a valuable fall-back game either, which spooks me a bit. He could become a middle-six playmaker who adds a significant amount of physical edge, power, and speed to the lineup, but he could just as well become a perpetual 4th liner in a physical role if the toolkit doesn’t quite come together.
52. Tanner Molendyk, LD
It hurts a bit to rank one of the class’ three best skaters this low, and there is untapped offensive potential that really could make me look silly, but his offensive game just hasn’t come together yet and I fear that he is overly reliant on the skating advantage he has in the WHL, which will significantly shrink at the pro level. I believe he will go as far as his creativity and deception take him, as of now I remain a bit skeptical, but if those two facets take a leap, he could end up being one of the best and most electrifying defencemen to come out of this class. He flashes high-end transition upside which could become elite with more deception and consistent lane switches and his passing mechanics are very strong, which could help form a really strong playmaking game if his creativity and manipulative skills flourish. Molendyk could become an extremely mobile top-four defenceman with real upside in transition and possibly as a playmaker, but if he doesn’t unlock the tools he needs to support his style at higher levels, he may not be an NHLer at all. He’s a big swing on upside that I wouldn’t personally take in the top 50, but I’d really respect the organization that does (if one does).
51. Cameron Allen, RD
Allen had a rather difficult draft-year season, but his draft stock may have been overcorrected as a result, as he remains a worthy 2nd round swing on mobility, quick passing game in transition, physical engagement defensively, and strong gap control. His offensive game is limited more by his habits than his tools, which makes his upside more difficult to assess. He is a high-volume shooter from the blueline, routinely gifting away possession, but strong shot and pass mechanics – if not a high degree of dynamism or creativity – could unlock offence that was not visible this season in which he was given far too much responsibility in a system which didn’t benefit him. As of now, I am comfortable projecting his upside as that of a #4 or #5 defenseman who is at his best in defensive and offensive transition and who could be moulded into a physical shutdown role if the skill and offensive flashes don’t fully translate, which forms a decent fall-back game.
50. Luca Pinelli, LW/C
Pinelli is a player I planted my flag in at the very beginning of the season, and this ranking represents a pretty big fall from where he’s previously been on my previous boards, which is more representative of my own cooling on his NHL upside rather than a drop in his level of play. I have a ton of respect for Pinelli’s high-intensity and high-intelligence game, and I am still a lot higher on his playmaking ability than most other scouts, but the more I’ve watched him play – and the more I’ve talked with other public scouts about him – the more questions I’ve raised on his level of pace and the role his development with the 67’s could impact his career trajectory. Pinelli has a tendency to slow down before executing his plays, which he will need to unlearn pretty quickly to continue to project as a valuable NHL prospect.
More important in my mind, however, is the necessity to get him on a team that values him as a playmaker and a power-play distributor, which the 67’s do not. As a D-1, I found Pinelli’s playmaking and one-touch distribution to be core components of what made him a special player. This season, he was used exclusively as a finisher both at even strength and on the power-play, which I still believe is more of a systemic issue rather than a limitation of his actual game. I also think that playing at centre would aid this progression. More needs to go right for Pinelli to project as an impactful NHLer than with most of the prospects in my Top 50, which is why I’ve cooled on him, but if such development does occur, Pinelli could unlock middle-six upside as a Swiss Army knife style player.
49. Timur Mukhanov, C
Mukhanov go brrrrr. The only players with comparable — or better — motors to Mukhanov in this draft class, in my mind, are Benson, Brindley, and Gauthier. He plays with unrelenting intensity and has the mobility and speed to really make the most of this ability. His high-pace style also leads to much of his offence. He’s quite a good playmaker and uses his intensity and his pace of execution to draw defenders slightly out of position in order to exploit the space they vacated. While he’s far from a great goalscorer, he’s also a high-end defensive piece, which gives him a well-rounded and cohesive profile that projects well to the NHL despite his small frame. I think his creativity, dynamism, and skill limit his ceiling, but I think that he could become an extremely reliable 3rd-line centre if his developmental trajectory continues at its current pace.
48. David Edström, C
Edström is a player I was quite skeptical of in terms of NHL upside for most of the season, which is mainly due to limitations in his scanning habits, anticipation, and his overall toolkit. This shifted recently as I went back to watch a few of his SHL and J20 games to make sure I was comfortable ranking him outside my top 64… as it turns out, I wasn’t.
He played really impressive hockey at the Men’s U18s in a top-line role for Sweden and was able to flash his power game, defensive solidity, and shooting skill against the best in his age group. His motor isn’t the highest, but he applies intelligent pressure defensively. His reaction and processing speeds are real strengths, but the lack of scanning habits in his game limits their effectiveness. That said, he doesn’t need to anticipate every play to be a useful piece. He’s a strong player who has added quite a lot of pieces to his power toolkit and has increasingly consistently lowered the shoulder to force his way to the slot. He has one of the harder shots in the class and has flashed decent small-area playmaking as well. If he does hit — which I think would best be done by integrating consistent scanning habits, further refining his power game, and really working on his skating, which projects as slightly below the NHL average — Edström could become a powerforward goalscoring two-way centreman in an NHL middle-six. Now, I still have some reservations about the likelihood of him becoming that player, which is why he didn’t rise further, but it is there, and my good friend and fellow Dobber Prospects scout Jordan Harris will be happy to see that I warmed up to Edström in the end.
47. Matthew Mania, RD
The player with the best name in the class has built his entire style of play after his own name, he plays with semi-controlled chaos. Mania plays a really high-event style that gives him high upside and has led to some moments of utter brilliance, but the mistakes, when he makes them, are bad. That said, he’s surprisingly composed for a player of his style, physical pressure doesn’t faze him and he adores to draw it in so as to open up space for his teammates to attack before getting them the puck. He regularly activates offensively and is a plus-level handler, passer, and shooter. His processing, creativity, composure, skill, and dynamism are all awesome, but they remained a bit inconsistent (less so as the year went on) and there’s quite a good chance he doesn’t become an impact NHLer at all since there are so many tools he still needs to put together to form a cohesive game, but the upside is worth swinging on him in the 2nd or 3rd round. He wasn’t ranked by Bob McKenzie either — to my surprise — and if a team can add a player with his potential in the late rounds, they may very well make out like bandits, he could be a dynamic and composed top-four defenceman.
46. Nick Lardis, LW
Lardis absolutely torched the OHL following his trade to Hamilton. Among players I have ranked outside my top 32, only Will Whitelaw has a better blend of high-end skating, handling, and goalscoring than Lardis. He’s at his best with the puck on his stick, as his off-puck offensive game and his defensive game especially remain areas in need of progression. In possession, Lardis plays with skill, creativity, and an innate desire to score goals, which he does very well. He has a diverse set of releases and can get off a wicked shot while under tight coverage. He should incorporate a bit more movement and unpredictability to his off-puck game in the offensive zone to project as a second-line NHL goalscorer, and building out his playmaking game — which features good passing mechanics and habits, and is typically slot-oriented but is restricted to the perimeter — would further entrench his top-six upside.
45. Koehn Ziemmer, RW
Ziemmer has been a tough player to pin down this season. Some of his tools and habits scream “first-round talent” such as his hands, shot, and ability to find soft ice around the slot, but his overall profile is one we’ve hesitated to rank in such a range. His defensive engagement is low, his offensive game is typically lacking in tenacity despite his strong physical frame, and his skating clearly projects as sub-NHL average. Adding a few gears to his motor, learning to collect more information in his scans, and improving his explosiveness could unlock the top-six upside his tools give him, but we’re a bit skeptical of the likelihood of that happening. That said, Ziemmer’s physicality, goalscoring, and decent distribution (which could be the foundation to becoming more of a play connector) give him a fall-back game that could do quite well in a bottom-six, which I value a fair amount.
44. Kasper Halttunen, RW
Halttunen just edges out his closest North American comparable on my board. While his Liiga production was… virtually nonexistent, he really was just snakebitten. He generated over 4.5 EV ixG (even-strength individual expected goals) in 27 games in bottom-six minutes, which was over 50% of his team’s EV xG while he was on the ice and yet didn’t score once. In my sample of this InStat data, which correlates to my personal top-64, the only other player in a pro league to hold the same honour of generating over half his team’s expected goals off of their own shots is Matvei Michkov. The only players in junior to do so were Colby Barlow and Kasper Halttunen!
All that is to say that Halttunen shoots a lot and is proficient at getting to high-danger scoring areas (both on and off-puck). His release is a genuine threat, too, among the top 10 in the class by my estimation. His one-timer is a significant power-play threat, and his wrist shot is powerful enough to beat goaltenders clean from medium range. He’s also an excellent puck protector who really uses his size and strength to create advantages. However, his average handling, choppy skating, and questionable defensive game raise questions regarding his projectability as a true difference-maker in an NHL top-six. He likely tops out as a second-line goalscoring powerforward, but a third-line role makes for a far more comfortable projection at this point in time.
43. Caden Price, LD
Price’s tools are really, really good. He’s an excellent skater, strong passer, good handler, and sometimes a source of creativity and skill from the backend. No defenceman in the class has a larger divergence between their highs and their lows. His late birthday, raw game, and lack of support in Kelowna this year are all encouraging in terms of giving him an abnormally long runway, which is the reason he’s this high on my board. Based on current ability he’d be a lot lower on my board, but the upside and room for growth made me a lot more scared to drop him past 50 than to just rank him in this glut of toolsy but flawed players who in regular drafts would be first-rounders in my eyes. He has a lot to work on in order to make the NHL, but if he does, he has all the tools needed to become an impactful top-four piece.
42. Denver Barkey, LW/C
At his best, Denver Barkey drove London’s offence almost singlehandedly. He has a wonderful combination of intensity, intelligence, skill, playmaking, and defensive ability. These tools combined for some special flashes this year, but in many of my viewings, he seemed to struggle to fully blend all these abilities in harmony. I’m also not entirely convinced that his skill is at a high enough level to translate his current style to the NHL, which certainly impacts his projection. My bet is that Barkey turns into a skilled 3rd-line Swiss Army knife, but if he’s able to more consistently layer his tools on top of one another rather than rotating through them, then top-six upside could be unlocked. At the very least, Barkey is a fun swing on skill, motor, and playmaking, and if he can be had in the third round or later, I would very excitedly call his name.
41. Aram Minnetian, RD
Minnetian is the most electrifying – and best – defenseman in the 2023 USNTDP crop and reminds me a bit of Seamus Casey last year but with less offensive control and refinement. His skating projects as well above the NHL average, and he weaponizes this mobility to great effect in the offensive zone, evading defenders with ease and quickly changing his body position to switch his angle of attack. Pairing that mobility with top 3 playmaking among defensemen in the class and decent hands, awareness, and processing, Minnetian has a diverse offensive toolkit and flashes high-end dynamism.
He will need at least four years before making the NHL is a possibility, but the investment could reap huge benefits with a little patience and some encouragement to lean into the offence. His defensive game is still quite weak and he will likely need to be insulated by a strong defensive partner in the NHL. Still, the creativity and offensive generation are very impressive and give him clear second-pairing upside alongside the risk that he never becomes an impact piece.
40. Felix Unger Sörum, RW
Unger Sörum has flown under the radar all season and even a strong performance at the Men’s U18s on Sweden’s top line did not earn him much top 64 attention but I believe he is deserving of consideration in the early to mid-second round. Unger Sörum is the youngest player in the draft class, missing the cutoff for 2024 by a single day and played strong hockey in both the SHL and the J20 as a 17-year-old. In the SHL, he played a conservative defence-first style that quickly gained the trust of his coaches, limiting the length of his puck touches and playing a mature give-and-go game with flashes of pace.
In the J20, Unger Sörum shone brightly as a playmaker, consistently sending pucks to the slot and creating passing lanes through coverage. At his best, he is a top 15 playmaker in this draft class in my own estimation. He gains separation from his opponents with frequent delays in his rushes, quick turns, and – increasingly – with give-and-go’s. While his style needs to evolve a bit to project to the North American pro game (eg. grow a goalscoring threat, up the pace consistently, and double down on the playmaking skill), Unger Sörum has a very long runway both in his age and his frame, and he possesses a strong fallback game as a defensive energy winger in a bottom-six if his playmaking doesn’t progress as I think it can, which, in the end, emboldened me to take such a bullish stance on him.
Tier 6: Solid Second-Line/Pairing or Longshot Top-Line Upside
This tier is pretty tight throughout and I could quite easily be convinced to pick a player I have ranked 5-10 spots lower than another over them.
39. Brayden Yager, C
Alright, it’s starting to get a bit spicy here. Yager will likely be picked inside the top 20, but I have enough doubts about his projectability to have him ranked outside my first round. That said, he would have been ranked inside my top 32 had this class been of comparable strength to 2022, but it’s not. Yager is a goalscoring centreman who added some interesting components to his playmaking game toward the start of this season but has taken no significant steps in his progression since then. While he finds soft ice fairly well offensively, his lack of strength complicates his style of play, even against WHL competition, as he loses most of his puck battles and gets bullied out of the slot far more often than he should. His defensive game, which was a strength in his draft year, has seemingly regressed, too. As of right now, I have a fair few doubts as to the projectability of his style if he isn’t able to add layers of dynamism, pace, and physicality to his play, and he doesn’t have an overly strong fallback game either. However, his goalscoring ability is top 7 in the class and if he puts it all together or shows that 2022-23 was just an off year for him, he will quickly demonstrate why he got picked way higher than I have him.
38. Eduard Šalé, LW
I’m really ripping off the bandaids to start this big tier with some hot takes. Šalé confounded the entire public scouting community all year, and I still don’t know if I have him pinned down. When he’s on, he’s an extremely skilled winger with high-end playmaking ability and impressive shooting skill who out-thinks most other players on the ice and drives offence at a high level. That version of Šalé just wasn’t present very often this season. In fact, Šalé didn’t show up in any of the 9 viewings I had of him against pro competition, which raises a ton of red flags in my mind, despite his strong U18 and U20 performances. Instead, he was extremely disengaged, rarely moving his feet or applying defensive pressure. His lack of intensity and engagement was at a concerning level, and his skill rarely shone in the professional environment. His flashes of brilliance against international junior competition, however, were blinding and made it tough for me to rationalize dropping him any further down my board. Whoever drafts Šalé will need to quickly get him to acclimate to the pace, physicality, and intensity of pro hockey while also working with him to better match the pace of his mind, which goes 100 MPH, and the pace of his feet, which lags behind. If he puts all of that together, he could be an elite first-line winger who drives offence and QB’s a PP1. It’s also possible, however, that he fails to adapt to the pro game and never plays sustained NHL minutes. He’s one of the biggest boom-or-bust players in the class, and there are other swings I’d feel far more comfortable making in the first round.
37. Ethan Gauthier, RW
Gauthier projects as the ultimate middle-six Swiss Army knife and ranking a player with that profile outside the first round hurts, but the problem with a draft class with 50 or so first-round talents is that only 32 of them can get ranked in that range. He combines an elite motor with high-end processing speed, mature habits, and a relentless middle-driven game. He applies good defensive pressure, supports his linemates extremely well in all three zones, and is an excellent forechecker. His on-puck game is also good. He’s a strong passer, especially in transition, who can hit teammates on the tape and thread the needle through tight (by QMJHL standards) defensive structures. While he lacks the manipulative tools to project as a true playmaker, he’s a good one-touch passer and will collect assists by getting to the dirty areas and quickly getting the puck to a teammate in space. His release also projects as above-average, while not quite at a PP triggerman calibre, he’s a legitimate scoring threat from short and medium range. While he’s not the most dynamic player and isn’t an offensive driver, Gauthier has all the tools and habits to become a fan-favourite plug-and-play third liner, with 2nd-line upside possibly unlocked with growth in his deception and playmaking habits.
36. Trey Augustine, G
Augustine will likely fall a lot further than he should come draft day, and it will mainly be due to his “small” stature at 6’1”. Every other component of his game screams “starting NHL goaltender,” however. He is an impressively calm and composed netminder who tracks the puck really well, is consistently well-positioned, and has good hands and athleticism. While he lacks the high upside of recent DY goaltenders like Jesper Wallstedt and Spencer Knight, he should not be undervalued as a prospect, if I’m a team in need of a goaltender, I’d consider Augustine in the late 1st round. He also has the numbers to back up the toolkit. His .928 SV% in his 14 USHL games is the best for a DY goaltender in the league since 1998-99, just ahead of John Gibson and fellow 2023 eligible Jacob Fowler, who had a .921 SV% through 40 games. Augustine’s numbers outside the USHL were just as good, bringing his final save percentage on the season to .926, which is excellent. While I can’t see him becoming a Vezina contender, I think he could top out as a reliable if unspectacular starting goaltender who is good enough to start 65% of the games for a genuine contender.
35. Luca Cagnoni, LD
Cagnoni is a player I’ve gone back and forth on, not due to inconsistent play, but rather because his NHL projection is very dependent on his brain and passing remaining a real notch above the competition in the best league in the world. Cagnoni is a really smart player who scans consistently, collects a lot of data, and processes it extremely quickly. He anticipates the run of play really well and knows exactly how to pierce defensive structures with a perfectly weighted pass, a quick angle change on his pass release, or with well-timed delays in his offensive activations. His passing ability is top 3 among defenders in the class, and when paired with his confident offensive game and flashes of dynamism, it was a potent tool in the WHL this year. While his puck-moving and offence represent his bigger strengths, he’s an intelligent and decisive defensive player as well. The reason he’s outside my first round despite all of these positives is that his combination of a lack of physicality and a very good top speed could complicate his translatability to the NHL. Still, Cagnoni could become a reliable and creative top-four piece if his tools continue to improve, his dynamism becomes more consistent, and his physicality/speed weaknesses are worked on.
34. Beau Akey, RD
Akey is one of the two players that Mitch Brown convinced me to take a closer look at, especially in terms of upside, Sawchyn was the other. Unsurprisingly, he was right to do so and both climbed up my board quite a bit as a result, so thanks, Mitch! Akey is a supremely mobile two-way defenceman who excels at defending the rush, springing the breakout, and distributing the puck in the offensive zone. His tools and trajectory give him a salivating upside, but he remains quite raw. His transition defending especially is a stand-out tool, and in this draft class, I’d argue he’s a smidgen ahead of Simashev, Reinbacher, and Willander in this facet, which makes him the top rush defender available in my eyes, even if it’s not by a landslide. His offensive upside will be determined by his confidence, creativity, and playmaking refinement. When he plays with confidence, his game is one of fluidity and decisiveness, and he controls the pace and direction of the play, which I saw a whole lot more in the second half of the season. Akey is the only defenceman I have ranked outside the first round who I think has a non-negligible chance of becoming the best defenceman to come out of the 2023 class, even if I don’t think it’s particularly likely.
33. William Whitelaw, RW
Whitelaw was a tough player for me to rank on my final board. On the one hand, he has one of the best toolkits outside my top 15 alongside Bradly Nadeau, Otto Stenberg, Riley Heidt, and maybe Caden Price. On the other, he remains extremely raw and inconsistent. Few players flashed higher highs and lower lows than Whitelaw this season. His combination of mobility, speed, goalscoring tools, and handling is elite. When he doesn’t default to shooting the puck, he can also flash impressive playmaking and dynamism. That said, he was routinely forced to the perimeter in the USHL – a league not exactly known for physicality or compact defensive structures – and had long spurts of low engagement. If his decision-making, on-puck scanning, and inside game can progress a fair amount over the next few years, Whitelaw could become a dynamic and dangerous top-six piece on a contending team, but if they don’t, he may not be an NHLer at all as he lacks a strong fallback game. He’s most certainly a boom-or-bust prospect, but the upside is too high to let fall much further than 33.
32. Anton Wahlberg, LW/C
Wahlberg is one of my personal favourites in this class. His toolkit is a particularly strong one. He’s a fluid, quick, and powerful skater with smooth and adaptable handling ability, with a heavy shot that is a real threat from the bumper position in the mid-slot, and great physicality, which he applies very practically to create small advantages. His defensive game is also a strength, he applies relatively consistent pressure, scans well, makes quick reads and decisions, and quickly sparks the breakout upon forcing or recovering a turnover. It happened a few times this year that Wahlberg went end to end on a solo rush, weaving through J20 defensive structures, protecting the puck ferociously, and making the goalie bite on a well-timed weight transfer before going back the other way and slotting the puck into the open net; he can be electrifying. His playmaking remains a real work in progress both in terms of execution and scanning for passing options when in shooting positions. Developing that aspect of the game could make him an offensive triple-threat, especially considering he’s one of the younger players in the class and that he has the off-puck scanning habits, processing speed, and deception to foster the growth of a good playmaking game, though the passing mechanics will need refinement. His upside is high, as he could turn into a skilled two-way goalscoring powerforward, possibly centring a 2nd line. His fallback game is really solid, too, so even if the skill doesn’t quite pop like I think it can, he could still very well become an impactful NHLer in a bottom-six.
31. Mikhail Gulyayev, LD
Gulyayev steadily fell down my board as the season wore on, not for lack of skill — he’s got that in abundance — but for his inconsistency, defensive struggles, and often perimeter-based playmaking, both in the MHL and the VHL. That said, he’s an elite skater, with tremendous 4-way mobility, and a very strong passer who regularly locates his target before even receiving the puck. His handling skill is also a strength, which he ably uses to diffuse pressure and solve problems. At his best, he layers these tools for a comprehensive and potent offensive threat and high-end transition driver. That was simply not overly consistent this season, however, and when he doesn't blend his high-end offensive tools for a cohesive package, he can be severely restricted to the perimeter offensively and his defensive game remains its porous self. His defensive habits need a lot of fine-tuning, from his gap control to boxing-out opponents and battling for loose pucks. He’s not at all a physically-involved player and he will need to improve his overall off-puck game to become an NHLer, but if his tools come together cohesively and the defensive warts are worked on a bit, Gulyayev could become a dynamic playmaker from the blueline with electrifying skating ability.
30. Alex Ciernik, LW
This is one of the bigger hot takes on my final board, even if it wasn’t when I first placed him inside my top 32 back in December. Ciernik is raw and this ranking is mainly based on projection, but his tools combine for a dangerous playmaking profile. He’s a mechanically strong skater, his stride features a near-90-degree knee-bend (which is almost perfect), good ankle flexion and hip mobility as well as very good edgework and agility. He moves around the ice with a sense of ease and is able to redirect his momentum on a dime, which is already a strong separation tool in HockeyAllsveskan, Sweden’s second pro division. He layers this mobility and speed with above-average handling, above-average creativity, anticipation, and problem-solving ability, and high-end playmaking. He remains often restricted to the perimeter, which will need to change, but even so, he drove a high rate of expected — and actual — primary assists against pro competition. His scanning habits are also a strength, which is a necessary habit to help solve the high-pressure problems he’s often faced with. His defensive effectiveness, off-puck engagement, and shooting mechanics all need a fair bit of work, but the dynamic top-six upside makes the developmental risk worthwhile at a certain point in the draft. He will likely fall past the 3rd round, but I really believe that he’s a slam-dunk top 64 talent.
29. Daniil But, RW
The first viewing I had of But back in October was by far the worst viewing I had of any 2023 eligible. It was so bad, in fact, that it took me until late December to work up the desire to scout him again. That game turned out to be a real outlier and my subsequent viewing consistently bumped. But up my board, finishing inside my first round, which I would not have believed to be possible back in October, but here we are! He’s a really skilled goalscoring powerforward with one of the best combinations of shooting threat, practical physicality, and handling in the class. While it’s far from the jewel of his toolkit, his playmaking game is being underrated by the public in my view, he sent a lot of pucks to the slot in both the MHL and the KHL, often creating separation from defenders through his strength, reach, and/or handling and quickly rifling the puck through the slot. While he needs to be more planned and controlled with his playmaking, he has the vision and passing mechanics to grow a decent playmaking game. His skating, defensive involvement, and motor are his biggest weaknesses. While his top speed is quite good, he takes a while to accelerate and his size and high centre of gravity make his agility and adaptability weaknesses. In order to become an impactful NHL piece in a top-six, he will need to double down on what already makes him special: his skill, goalscoring, and power game.
28. Colby Barlow, RW
Barlow will go a lot higher than this rank at the draft and will probably make me look bad for having him 28th in the short term. I wouldn’t be surprised if he played in the NHL this year and he could probably already hold down a bottom-six powerforward role already. That said, I’m not sure how much runway he has to further elevate his game. He’s a linear player who rarely incorporates lateral movement or lane switches into his transition game. Offensively, his shot is his best tool, it is one of the hardest in the class and he’s a true threat to score from medium range. He is, however, a volume shooter with a very limited playmaking game, average handling, and a relative lack of creativity and dynamism. I struggle to envision him in a role exceeding a complimentary 2nd-line powerforward, though a 3rd-line ceiling is more likely in my view. While the short-term reward with Barlow could be greater than most if not all players I have ranked outside my top 10, I believe the other players I have ranked ahead of him have a better chance at reaching higher ceilings at the end of the day.
27. Riley Heidt, C/LW
Heidt has bobbed between my late teens and late twenties all season, and lands at the bottom of that range here, which is more indicative of how tight this range is than of his lack of upside. He’s a great skater who can play at a high pace and blends his movements, handling, processing speed, and playmaking into a fairly cohesive offensive profile. He does really lack a goalscoring threat, however, which is one of the primary reasons he slipped down my rankings, as it makes him a relatively predictable passer in the offensive zone. Adding a dual-threat element to his game is crucial for his projection, especially since he’s a PP specialist as currently constructed, who struggled to produce at even strength this season. The tools are there for an impactful top-six ceiling, however, he’s dynamic and creative, flashing impressive upside. But the questions I have about the projectability of his offensive potency without the addition of a complimentary shooting threat were enough to push him down to 27.
26. Calum Ritchie, C
Ritchie is a high-likelihood 3C with 2C upside. He’s a tenacious two-way playmaking centreman with borderline elite hockey sense, it’s the defining part of his game. He’s consistently middle-driven and his above-average handling allows him to solve most problems OHL defences throw at him, especially with his excellent scanning habits and processing speed. He is a strong play connector who can elevate linemates with more skill than himself. Ideally, he would centre two dynamic, quick, and intelligent wingers on a 2nd line, as they could take the burden of carrying the puck and open up space for Ritchie, who is a subpar skater and has limited dynamic skill. That said, he’s a creative problem solver who doesn’t rely on his skating to get him out of trouble, but rather uses his plus-level physical tools, handling skill, quick processing, and passing ability to do so effectively. He’s one of the better defensive centres in the class as well. Phillip Danault-type upside with slightly worse defending but better goalscoring (as a DY) is possible, which would make this ranking look questionable, but his skating and dynamism limitations pushed him down my board a little bit, but I’d be open to picking him as soon as my top 14 are off the board, even if I wouldn’t be banging the table for him.
25. Gracyn Sawchyn, C
Sawchyn climbed up my board steadily since March and lands just inside my top 25. Few players in the class, especially outside my top 14, can match his combination of high-end intensity, handling, and playmaking. He plays at a suffocating pace, and is very escapable in tight. He supports play really well and is a great compliment to the elite skill guys on Seattle when he does play with them. His playmaking toolkit is diverse, too. His one-touch passing game is a strength, as is his ability to find and hit cross-seam targets. He’s also flashed really impressive handling sequences, weaving through 2 or 3 defenders, seemingly with ease. He comfortably projects as a middle-six piece and has the defensive habits and motor to become a solid PK piece on top of his PP upside as a distributor and creator. While I still have some questions about the likelihood that he hits his high-end upside, the tools and tenacity convinced me to rank him well inside my first round. If he hits, he could be a top-six forward, quite possibly at centre, who creates consistent offence through his skill, intelligence, and sheer power of will.
24. Oscar Fisker Mølgaard, C/LW
Fisker Mølgaard won the hearts of most public scouts this season through his consistently reliable and effective style of play. He can play on the wing and at centre and is valuable in all three zones. He’s one of the best defensive forwards in the class, holding down large defensive responsibilities with HV71 in the SHL this season as one of their few bright spots. His on and off-puck games are equally refined and projectable, he plays at a high pace with significant intensity, doggedly drives the middle lane, and is patient in possession. His playmaking is his best offensive tool, he’s very slot-oriented with it and uses his refined habits to retain possession and prod at defensive structures until he forces an opening. While he isn’t the most dynamic or innately creative player, he is methodical in his approach to the game and could fill a large variety of roles at the NHL level. While his goalscoring, explosiveness, strength, and creativity could use some improvement, he is already a pro-style player who should translate seamlessly to the NHL in 2-3 years. He’s the type of player the Colorado Avalanche select in the second round and turn into a plug-and-play two-way top-six piece who can slot into most roles and facilitates play for elite linemates extremely well. While I do think a middle-six ceiling is far more likely, few players in this class make better fits for a Bunting-style role.
23. Nate Danielson, C
I have an inkling that Danielson gets picked inside the top 15 or even top 10, but I wouldn’t personally swing on him that high. He is, however, an impactful two-way piece who excels in creating off the rush with his speed and is a genuine dual threat with above-average goalscoring and playmaking abilities. He’s also improved his lateral mobility, off-puck routes, and middle-driven game this season as one of the few sparks on a weak Brandon team. He plays a simple but effective physical game, too, and has been building on his puck protection mechanics a fair amount in the last few months of the season. He’s a good skater and plays a reliable defensive game. As a whole, Danielson is an easy middle-six projection and could unlock top-six potential with tool development and more consistent dynamic flashes. A contender picking in the 12 to 20 range could do a whole lot worse than Danielson if he’s available, as he could play reliable 3C minutes within 2 or 3 years.
22. Dalibor Dvorský, C
This is lower than most have Dvorský, and I expect to get some relies to my rankings flaming me for this, which is fine. I like him a lot as a future middle-six goalscoring centreman who has some good defensive upside. I have a lot of questions about his creativity, dynamism, and elite upside, however, which allowed players who in my mind have better chances to become really impactful NHL pieces to leapfrog him. His shot is comfortably top 10 in the class and he’s a genuine one-timer threat on the power-play. His physicality, puck protection mechanics, handling, and processing speed are all strengths as well. If he’s developed to be a 2C with little play-driving responsibility, I think he could turn into a 30-goal and 55-point player with excellent defensive impacts as well, but that’s not guarantee and he would still need to fine-tune his passing game and deception to project as a top-six contributor in my eyes. For a more in-depth breakdown of his game, check out my video analysis thread on him on Twitter.
21. Gabe Perreault, LW
Perreault has been a fascinating case study all year, and he ends up at the highest slot I’ve had him all year with a late surge as I went back and watched games of his from the past 18 months to chart his progression. He’s come a long way in that span and outside my top 14, there is not player who can match his hockey sense or deception. These are his foundational tools alongside his elite handling, playmaking, and off-puck movement, which give him significant upside as a top-six contributor, though I suspect that he will be the tertiary piece on whichever line he ends up on, much as he was with the USNTDP. While not as potent a goalscorer as his numbers would suggest, he finds space around the slot extremely well and scores by consistently being at the right place at the right time. He will need to significantly work on his skating and his physicality, however.
His skating mechanics are quite inefficient and he doesn’t have much lower body power to waste. His stride is really wide, even by NTDP standards, and he wastes a lot of momentum through a lack of control and a lot of lateral arm-swinging, the only player with worse skating that I have ranked above Perreault is Matthew Wood, whose projection is far less reliant on improving that weakness. Perreault also lacks physicality and could have some growing pains to adjust to the strength and violence of opponents in the NCAA and eventually the NHL, especially in terms of getting muscled out of the pockets of soft ice he so ably finds. If he can add a significant amount of lower body strength, both of these weaknesses would become far less impactful, and I’m betting that he overcomes the hurdles. While I expect him to produce more in the NHL than players I have ranked above him, I think his overall impact may be a bit more limited.
20. Samuel Honzek, LW/C
Honzek is a toolsy forward with the best puck protection mechanics in the draft class. While he’s being drafted out of the WHL, he spent his D-1 playing pro in Slovakia, and the professional habits he picked up along the way are serving him extremely well. He’s one of the strongest players in the class and has all the practical physical tools to support a powerforward style. His skating, playmaking, goalscoring, hockey sense, compete level, and handling are all plus-level tools as well, which form an extremely high-end and well-rounded profile, which I think makes him project as a top-six piece if his development continues on its promising curve. His pro style game, versatile and potent offensive toolkit, and salivating physical tools give him a high floor as an impactful bottom-six play driver, as well. Ranking a player with his combination of floor and upside this low doesn’t quite feel right, but I couldn’t quite bump out any of my top 18 for him, his ranking is the victim of the class’ strength.
19. Bradly Nadeau, C/RW
This may be my most bullish take this year. I wasn’t quite convinced of Nadeau’s profile for much of the season and just left him in my mid-second until I got around to dedicating a full day to pinning him down and sifting through a lot of footage. No player outside my top 14 can match his combination of elite toolkit and elite hockey sense, in my view. His shot is top 5 in the class and it will only improve further as he adds more muscle to his 160 lbs frame, few players his size are able to generate as much power from various releases than he can, and he’s an accurate shooter as well. His handling and playmaking are also comfortably above average in projection, making him a potential triple-threat NHLer, which I am quite confident in saying despite his environment in the BCHL making it more challenging to truly pin down the extent of his upside. His processing speed, scanning habits, anticipation, and decisiveness are strengths in his toolkit that really facilitate his offensive tools to shine and to be projectable to the NCAA and then to pro hockey beyond that.
His defensive game is good for the BCHL and his intelligence will help it grow against better competition, but it isn’t quite a strength in his game yet. His motor can be quite good, but I’ve found his stamina to be a bit of an issue, but NCAA conditioning should help that progress. Lastly, his skating and handling are both held back by relatively simple mechanical flaws that, if fixed, could improve both tools by a full grade, further contributing to his high upside. This pick is entirely projection and upside, but he’s worth a hard swing, if he hadn’t played in the BCHL, he’s a slam-dunk first-rounder in my mind and he has legitimate dynamic top-six upside, likely on the wing.
18. Matthew Wood, RW
Wood is a fascinating prospect to me. He consistently climbed my board the more I watched him play and the less I was worried about his skating deficiencies. The skating is rough… but he doesn’t rely on it to solve any of his problems, and rather, has adapted his game around this weakness in a really impressive way. Big wingers with awful skating and poor engagement are rarely a profile I’d have ranked this high, but Wood is special in a fair few ways. He’s a true triple-threat offensively. His shot is elite, his goalscoring habits are very good, his handling is great, and his playmaking tools and habits have progressed from subpar to a genuine strength in the past 8 months. He’s a really adaptable player despite the lack of mobility and he uses his reach, creativity, strength, and dynamic on-puck routes to create separation and access space in high-danger areas even while carrying the puck. Off-puck, he has an easier time getting to scoring areas, still, and he’s a constant threat when his team has possession in the offensive zone, whether or not it’s on his stick. I could see Wood becoming a toolsier version of Tyler Toffoli offensively, but with a lower motor, slightly worse skating, and significantly inferior defensive upside.
17. Otto Stenberg, C/LW
Stenberg has been one of my favourites in the class since December when I first started to dig into his SHL tape. He’s a great skater, with excellent edgework, fluidity, speed, and mechanics, and he layers this with his high-end handling, processing speed, vision, and passing skill to be a dynamic offensive threat, especially with the puck on his stick. His shot is also a plus-level tool, and while his defensive performances in J20 were inconsistent, I was fairly convinced by his defensive habits, engagement, and motor in every SHL viewing I had of him. If he hits, he could become a skilled and electric 2C, but an NHL future on the wing is more likely as of now. Even still, he could become a really valuable top-six creator. His patience in possession, flashes of tenacity, and smart off-puck game facilitate a high-end fallback game, as well, if the high-end skill doesn’t fully translate, which was the deciding factor in ranking him top 20.
16. David Reinbacher, RD
I really like David Reinbacher, even if that may not have been accurately conveyed in my criticisms of his overall upside this season, which was largely in reaction to him being projected as a top 10 calibre player. He’s a mobile defenceman who is an excellent breakout passer and an incredibly reliable defensive piece. While I do believe his offensive toolkit limits his upside to that of a #3 on a contender, I think he’s quite likely to reach that level. He is a strong transition defender, closing his gaps aggressively but in a calculated manner, rarely chasing hits, and his in-zone defence is structured around his focus on defending high-danger opportunities, which was especially impressive at the World Juniors. Offensively, he has a fairly hard shot and is a good distributor, but I that’s where the offensive upside ends from my perspective. While he’s mobile, he’s a limited handler who sports an awkwardly locked top hand, and while he’s a strong passer, the dynamic tools to support a true playmaking game aren’t quite there. He activates offensively, but it was often with a lack of purpose in my viewings and he struggled to poke holes into moving defensive structures while cycling around the offensive zone in possession, rarely using delays or cutbacks to displace defenders. He is clearly valued very highly by NHL teams and will be afforded many opportunities as a result, but I have enough doubts about his upside to exclude him (barely) from my top 15.
15. Tom Willander, RD
Almost unanimously, public scouts have seen Willander skyrocket up their boards in the past couple of months, and I’m no different. While he lacks the elite upside that his compatriot Axel Sandin Pellikka has, Willander is a high-likelihood #3 defenceman and can do just about everything at an above-average level. He’s a terrific skater, with excellent mobility and fluidity, which allow him to cover an impressive amount of ice on both sides of the puck. He’s a strong passer, both in the breakout and as an offensive distributor, the passing ability paired with his vision could foster the growth of a really good playmaking game, too, if he learns to more consistently activate from the blueline, which his future defensive partner at Boston University, Lane Hutson, should be able to teach him rather well (and Willander should help Hutson with his pivots and defensive habits). His handling skill is also a strength, which could lead to him becoming a strong carrier through the neutral zone. Willander is a reliable defender, who closes his gaps quickly and without warning and protects the slot very effectively during sustained defensive zone sequences. While his shot is likely his biggest weakness, he could turn into a dynamic two-way defenceman who can carry the puck end-to-end and create offence from the backend. His combination of floor and upside make him my third highest-ranked defenceman in the class, just edging out Reinbacher, and for a second consecutive year, I’m ranking a BU-committed defenceman inside my top 15.
Tier 5: Tangible Top-Line/Pairing Upside
14. Andrew Cristall, W
Cristall is among the best playmakers and quickest processors in the class, and could become a high-end top-line winger with 90+ point upside in his prime. He could also fail to ever truly crack the NHL. No player in the class has a bigger gap between their hills and valleys. At his best, he’s a top-6 talent in this class, but at his worst he plays a pond hockey that would never work in pro hockey, let alone. the NHL. His skating is also a big question mark, while he’s agile and escapable, his top speed needs to improve by a lot to help his style translate to the NHL. His tools apart from the skating are very good, his handling and goalscoring are excellent, even if they are outshone by the playmaking. As a whole, Cristall easily has top-line upside as a dynamic, creative, dual-threat scorer. He will need defensive support and a system which allows him to play with offensive and creative freedom, but the upside is huge. That said, there’s significant risk too, I can understand why NHL teams hesitate to rank him top-20, and I personally wouldn’t feel comfortable spending a top 10 pick on him as currently constructed, as a the risk of getting 0 NHL games from that selection is significant.
13. Jayden Perron, W
Perron is a player who public scouts are way higher on than NHL scouts, and I delved into his game recently to make sure I felt comfortable ranking him top 14, and it only reinforced my belief in his potential. Perron has significant upside as a skilled playmaking two-way winger. He will need to add significant lower body strength and get his skating to a high-end level to project as an impactful NHLer, but these are both quite achievable and they’re linked as his skating mainly lacks power, not mechanical refinement. He has a very strong foundation of elite IQ, elite playmaking, high-end defensive habits, high-end tenacity and engagement, and some of the most refined off-puck instincts in the entire draft class. His goalscoring game has also grown significantly since the beginning of the season and is now an actual strength in his game. While he will need a few years to bulk up, I believe that the foundation he has to become an impactful top-six NHL winger is there, and I expect his production to take a leap next season with the University of North Dakota.
12. Gavin Brindley, C/W
Brindley is an absolute buzzsaw. He plays at a breakneck pace with incredible intensity and has the skill to become a versatile top-six piece who can play most roles at a pretty high level. He’s an excellent forechecker, very good defensive forward, and has significant upside as a penalty killer. He’s a really quick skater, has strong skating mechanics and agility, and is able to cover a ton of ice in the blink of an eye. His playmaking is very good but not quite great, as it remains a bit simple as of now, revolving mainly around short passes to the slot upon forcing a turnover down low, rather than flashy cross-seam passes. That said, he connects play really well and elevates his linemates (Fantilli included). His upside may be lower than the other players in this range, but I’m a big enough believer in his ability to become a high-end complimentary top-six forward (and in his excellent fallback game) to rank him here. Few players in this class brought me more joy to scout than Brindley.
11. Quentin Musty, W
Musty’s development over the course of the season was very impressive. While he started the year as a very toolsy but equally inconsistent player who was prone to skating into pressure, rarely planned his attacks, made little use of his teammates in transition, and was rarely very engaged off-puck at both ends of the ice, he finished the year strong enough to sit just outside my top 10. Musty worked significantly on his prescanning habits on retrievals and receptions, which in turn has led him to a more planned offensive style; it’s a subtle tweak but it altered the course of his season. He became one of the premier playmakers in the entire draft class in the second half of the season, consistently deceiving opponents, creating passing lanes, and using his diverse and high-end set of tools to create a whole lot of offence. While his defensive game has progressed, it does not project as an NHL strength at this point in time.
He plays a game of pure power and finesse, which is a rare and valuable combination. His hands and playmaking abilities are top 10 if not top 5 in the class, and his wrist shot is likely top 10 as well, Musty’s tools should make NHL teams salivate. His July 6 birthday also gives him a significantly longer developmental runway than most other players in my Top 32. While it took some time, Musty won over a lot of scouts, myself included, with his elite-level tools, pure upside, and steadily progressing habits on and off-puck.
10. Axel Sandin Pellikka, RD
Sandin Pellikka has the highest offensive potential among defenceman in this class, and I believe it’s by a fair margin. His tools are excellent. He’s an elite skater, high-end playmaker, handler, and shooter, and his offensive creativity, awareness, and processing are excellent. At his best, he is a dominant offensive defenceman who flashes real top-pairing upside, and he did so quite regularly this season. That’s not to say that he’s a perfect player, however. His defensive game is slightly subpar and will need to be worked on if he is to ever play in a top pairing role. His gap in transition can often be a bit loose, and his moments of passiveness in his own zone led to multiple goals against in my viewings. You’re not picking him to be a defensive stalwart, however, he’s a dynamic offensive defenceman who could QB a PP1 for a really long time, and who excels in offensive transition, both as a passer and carrier. While he and Simashev were neck-and-neck to the very end on my board, I believe Simashev’s offensive flashes were brighter and more projectable than Sandin Pellikka’s defensive flashes.
9. Dmitri Simashev, LD
Simashev has not left my top 10 since January, I’ve become a huge fan of his upside and toolkit. His 4-way mobility is excellent and he’s an elite skater, especially for a 6’4” 18-year-old. His stride is powerful and his quick pivots and momentum redirections make him very adaptable defensively. His physicality is also a huge strength, as he uses it consistently to separate opponents from the puck and he rarely if ever chases a hit. His defensive game is the jewel in his profile. He’s an elite rush defender and potentially and even stronger in-zone defender still, certainly more refined in his defensive actions and habits than last year’s crop of defencemen picked in the top 15, though his offensive game is far more restricted to hopeful flashes rather than sustained brilliance. There have been moments this year when Simashev has gone end-to-end with his head up, evading forecheckers through the neutral zone and sent a pinpoint cross-crease pass to a teammate who failed to convert. He didn’t get many lucky bounces offensively this year, and he could be had later in the first round than he should be as a result. While the offensive game is extremely raw, the mobility, physicality, and defensive awareness and habits are elite and should propel him to a top-four NHL role on their own, but offensive refinement could unlock slam-dunk #1 defenceman potential, which I can’t say about any other defender in the class.
8. Ryan Leonard, RW
Whichever team lands Ryan Leonard will be extremely happy to have him on their roster for a decade and a half, while their rival team(s) will be less than enthusiastic. He projects as a plug-and-play top-six powerforward who can elevate any line he plays on through his awesome combination of power, skill, creativity, goalscoring, playmaking, and intensity. While I do think he projects best as a winger, he has had experience down the middle, which adds to his versatility. He’s a plus-level skater too, with a good top-speed, better two-step acceleration, and impressive agility for a player as powerful as he is. He consistently gains inside positioning in physical battles, is a dangerous player around the crease, and he can score from medium to long range as well with a quick but heavy release, especially on his wristshots and snapshots. His quick reaction speed paired with his shot, passing ability, and physicality makes him an excellent bumper on the power-play. His defensive game is also a strength, far exceeding that of his two linemates this season (Smith and Perreault). While his upside may not be quite as elite as the players in the tiers above him, he will be a long-time impactful top-six forward who 31 teams will be jealous to have.
Tier 4: Significant Top-Line Upside
7. Oliver Moore, C
Oliver Moore was ahead of Smith on my board for most of the season, but in the end, his lower offensive upside was the deciding factor in ranking him 7th, even if I believe he’s more likely to become an impactful NHLer than Smith. He’s the best and fastest skater in the draft, which he uses to compliment his handling skill, vision, and pace to form the basis of his elite carrying ability in transition. He’s also an excellent passer and playmaker, so he’s far from predictable with the puck on his stick. Offensively, he creates a high rate of offence through his playmaking, which he blends with his dynamic skill and high-end hockey sense to consistently break down defensive structures and get the puck to a teammate in a medium or high-danger location. He unfortunately didn’t have the most support on his line until he got games with James Hagens and Cole Eiserman, which limited his production. He’s also the second-best defensive forward in the draft behind Zach Benson. His overall impact in the NHL will be substantial, and he projects as a Dylan Larkin style of player, but I think the playmaking is a fair bit better at the same age but the goalscoring is a step below.
6. Will Smith, C
Smith is electrifying. Outside of Bedard, Fantilli, and Michkov, I doubt any player from the 2023 class will feature more regularly on highlight reels. He’s tremendously creative and is an elite handler and playmaker. The goalscoring is just a small notch behind his other offensive tools too, which makes him a clear triple-threat. He processes the play very quickly and his vision is a huge strength. While he remains a bit too reliant on out-thinking his opponents to access high-danger areas off-puck, that should keep improving and adapting with time, though it’s something to keep an eye on. His skating is a limiting quality as it’s just about average, unlike most of his other tools. His defensive and engagement habits remain quite raw, and it is clear that the NTDP encouraged him to just be creative with the puck. He doesn’t make for quite as high-end of an NHL projection as Cooley did, but it’s close.
If his habits refine and his skating improves quickly at Boston College, he should be NHL-ready within a year. His projection at centre is dependent on the system he’ll play in and the linemates he’ll have; I’d wager that the stability he’s had in that regard (and will continue to have) has played a big role in his development. If a team with a conservative defence-first system picks him, his projection would suffer rather quickly. That being said, Smith has the upside of a 40-goal, 100-point 1C (though 1LW is perhaps similarly likely) and that will, and should, get him picked very high on draft day. There’s just a bit of a lower floor and a few more more developemntal question marks with Smith than with the players I have ahead of him.
Tier 3: Complete Top-Line Potential
5. Zach Benson, W/C
While Smith’s playmaking is elite, Benson’s is a touch better, and on the same level as Bedard’s as of now (though Bedard’s progressed an incredible amount in the past year and it’s trajectory should take it further than Benson’s). He’s also one of the smartest and most intense players in the draft class. To top it all off, his handling skill, processing speed, and one-touch game are elite as well. Whenever he gets the puck, it ends up in a significantly better place than where he got it, few 18-year-old players are as refined, complete, and dependable as Benson, and he adds elite skill to that already impressive profile. Benson is a relentless forechecker and applies excellent defensive pressure as a whole. I believe that if the team that picks him wants to, they could quite easily develop him as a centre as well. He’s a puppetmaster on the ice; he dictates the pace of play and is an elite offensive driver. Had he been eligible in 2022, he would have been in his own tier at #1 on my board, I’m that high on him. I see him as a future top-line creator who does everything at a really high level. If you’d like to read me gushing over him even more, I made a video analysis thread on him!
4. Leo Carlsson, C/W
Carlsson is an elite playmaking powerforward who will be a centre at the NHL level. His physical tools are excellent, and his offensive habits are far more refined than those of all draft-eligibles who have played in the SHL since Rasmus Dahlin. He’s inside-driven, targets the slot with his playmaking, uses his physicality to create separation and to access the slot, and he uses his teammates very well to creat offence, rarely coming off as individualistic. His scanning habits, anticipation, awareness, and processing speed are all significant strengths, too. While his defensive game isn’t yet consistently great in the SHL, it has shone brightly in flashes and his intelligence will help him learn that part of the game quickly and at a high-level. He could probably play good NHL minutes as of this Fall, but another year in Sweden would be hugely beneficial in fostering his talent and in giving him big minutes down the middle to continue to grow more comfortable as a pivot. He’s a slam-dunk top-six centreman, with a great chance at becoming a 1C. Check out my video analysis thread on him.
Tier 2: Potential Superstars
3. Matvei Michkov, W
Michkov’s ceiling is stratospheric, and he’s in Fantilli’s tier for that reason. While he never did unseat his counterpart on my board at 2, he’s been knocking on the door for quite some time. I believe he will come to the NHL at the age of 21, signing a full 3-year ELC as a more refined and elite offensive threat, and have few concerns about his contract situation or his passport, and I genuinely believe that these two factors have been grossly overblown as factors in selecting him, and that it is unfair to treat his case so blatantly differently from any other draft-eligible player, Russian or not. I am confident that Michkov will score a whole lot of goals in the NHL — he has all the tools and habits to do so — and that any team that passes on him past 3rd overall will regret doing so, even if they are incredibly happy with the player they end up selecting instead.
Michkov is an elite goalscorer, elite handler, and an elite playmaker, in my mind he edges out Fantilli as the second best triple-threat scorer in the class, though his holistic game projects as slightly less impactful. Michkov absolutely dominated the KHL with Sochi, not just in terms of production but in consistent creation and offensive generation as well, he’s incredibly dynamic. While his defensive game remains a big work in progress, no team would draft him in the hoped of adding a future Selke winner, and in order to play big minutes with SKA St. Petersburg over the next 3 years, he will need to address this weakness hastily. Michkov could become a 50+ goal, 100+ point winger if things break his way, and passing on that profile strikes me as significantly riskier than swinging on it. And here’s my final video analysis thread self-plug.
2. Adam Fantilli, C
Fantilli is another powerforward centreman, it is a real area of strength in this class, who can do it all at an elite level… well almost. He’s a tremendous and powerful skater who attacks with pace, deception, and skill. He’s an elite playmaker, and a slightly less but still elite goalscorer, especially as a one-timer threat on the power-play. His dynamism and handling skill are among the best in the class, too. While he’s a lot more raw than Bedard is, he could do well in a semi-sheltered top-six NHL role as of this upcoming season. His defensive game needs refinement, much like Carlsson’s, but it should eventually grow into a strength. Whoever picks Fantilli is getting their franchise centreman who projects as a physically-dominant elite triple-threat creator.
Tier 1: The Generational Talent
1. Connor Bedard, C
What can I say that hasn’t been said a thousand times already about Connor Bedard?
He is a generational talent who blends superstar-level goalscoring, playmaking, processing, handling, and skating to form a cohesive and potent offensive profile. He’s not perfect, no player is, his defensive game projects to be around McDavid’s level rather than around Crosby’s, but I can’t envision anyone in the Blackhawks organization caring much about that that. There are other small bad habits that he should eventually mature out of, but we’re getting deep into nit-picking territory here. He’s a special, once or twice in a generation player, who really doesn’t need much more of a scouting report than that.
And that is all from me for this draft class! Feel free to follow along to see the players I “draft” to add to Team High next week, which consists of the players I would have picked with the Habs’ selections going since 2020. I will also try to post another few video analysis threads over on Twitter before and after the draft, so check those out when they’re posted. Lastly, make sure to go read our Dobber Prospect Top 100 article and to go follow our excellent scouts on Twitter (linked in Top 100 article).